Beyond the Zulu Principle is good. I have never read any others really, I read the Zulu Principle and used that as my bible for the first 5 years. Most other stuff I have learned watching the likes of Peter Lynch online and developing what works for me over the past 25 years using back testing and trial and error. I must have made all the mistakes there were to make in 25 years so I ought to be getting it right by now if I've learned from them!
Well all these small caps are illiquid to a degree but FCH isn't the toughest by a long shot. It's when there's an issue and a lot want to sell at the same time that these small caps are a pain. It's more the CRL type small caps that are a real pain. Also depends what size you are selling in of course.
Yes, they are mostly tied to gilts and interest rates. What's good is if you can get to a position to get an insurance co to take the pension over, that may be a way off. I don't think interest rates are going down much in the UK myself, gov stoking inflation imo.
Yes, I'm fine with the debt. It has come down from £34.4m to £25.9m. When you have recovery plays like this you have to accept stuff like this is why the stock is cheap and it has scared cautious investors away. When the debt has shrunk, the cautious investor are then buying at a much higher price.
The question is doers the new board sound credible? If I read the RNSs and watch the presentations they do imo. They have delivered so far and that gives me confidence.
A fall in the pension that has been mooted would also make things rosier. It's quite amazing how when recovery plays pick up momentum, debt can fall fast and accelerate imo.
Of course I've done this a lot and I might be more comfy than may. I may also be wrong but I can live with that as an occupational risk, just got to be right more than wrong.
Big fan of your Substack Richard. I heard an actuary explain that for DB pension schemes such at Carclo and Renold that rising interest rates over the last 2-3 years might help reduce deficits. Most of these schemes use a gilts-based discount rate, the value of DB liabilities is very sensitive to changes in the value of gilts. When long-term interest rates fall—and gilt prices rise— the present value of DB pension schemes' liabilities also rises. The opposite happens when rates rise and gilt prices fall.
Thanks Rebel, nice update. I hold a fair few FCH so very happy with them. What other books would you recommend reading (I've read zulu principle, very good). Any others you suggest?
Thanks Rebel for this week's update and nice to see you "back at it again!"
Thursday was my best day ever with FCH and CAR contributing to a c.7% gain. I guess we just need CMCX to come through after all this volatility and their cost savings to complete the set.
Did I understand you correctly that you view FCH as an illiquid stock - as in could be difficult to offload at times...even with their ongoing share buybacks?
Hi Richard, Are you comfortable with Carclo's debt? I would like to take a position as operationally it looks like it could be very successful but it is still on a knife edge. High interest rates and any operational misses could hit hard, and cash flow will be swallowed up for a few years on the bank debt + pension, plus 25% of any increases in EBITDA goes towards the pension pot! Thanks in advance!
Beyond the Zulu Principle is good. I have never read any others really, I read the Zulu Principle and used that as my bible for the first 5 years. Most other stuff I have learned watching the likes of Peter Lynch online and developing what works for me over the past 25 years using back testing and trial and error. I must have made all the mistakes there were to make in 25 years so I ought to be getting it right by now if I've learned from them!
I bought a few MPAC on Friday, forgot to mention sorry. Not the size I had but wanted a few to be holding into the results.
Likewise
Cheers, will take a look at Archontech - it's been a bit of a slow slog that one imo.
Thanks
Well all these small caps are illiquid to a degree but FCH isn't the toughest by a long shot. It's when there's an issue and a lot want to sell at the same time that these small caps are a pain. It's more the CRL type small caps that are a real pain. Also depends what size you are selling in of course.
Thanks for clarifying.
I just bought back into Mpac ahead of next week’s update and given the CEO’s credibility.
Do you hold any?
Yes, they are mostly tied to gilts and interest rates. What's good is if you can get to a position to get an insurance co to take the pension over, that may be a way off. I don't think interest rates are going down much in the UK myself, gov stoking inflation imo.
No roblem
Hi Joe
Yes, I'm fine with the debt. It has come down from £34.4m to £25.9m. When you have recovery plays like this you have to accept stuff like this is why the stock is cheap and it has scared cautious investors away. When the debt has shrunk, the cautious investor are then buying at a much higher price.
The question is doers the new board sound credible? If I read the RNSs and watch the presentations they do imo. They have delivered so far and that gives me confidence.
A fall in the pension that has been mooted would also make things rosier. It's quite amazing how when recovery plays pick up momentum, debt can fall fast and accelerate imo.
Of course I've done this a lot and I might be more comfy than may. I may also be wrong but I can live with that as an occupational risk, just got to be right more than wrong.
Many thanks for the reply and insight into how you think about the situation - all valid points to take into consideration.
Big fan of your Substack Richard. I heard an actuary explain that for DB pension schemes such at Carclo and Renold that rising interest rates over the last 2-3 years might help reduce deficits. Most of these schemes use a gilts-based discount rate, the value of DB liabilities is very sensitive to changes in the value of gilts. When long-term interest rates fall—and gilt prices rise— the present value of DB pension schemes' liabilities also rises. The opposite happens when rates rise and gilt prices fall.
Thanks Rebel, nice update. I hold a fair few FCH so very happy with them. What other books would you recommend reading (I've read zulu principle, very good). Any others you suggest?
Great to see you back with those enthusiastic updates. Arcontech's 3 year chart looking like a classic bowl. All the best Cockney.
Thanks Rebel for this week's update and nice to see you "back at it again!"
Thursday was my best day ever with FCH and CAR contributing to a c.7% gain. I guess we just need CMCX to come through after all this volatility and their cost savings to complete the set.
Did I understand you correctly that you view FCH as an illiquid stock - as in could be difficult to offload at times...even with their ongoing share buybacks?
Hi Richard, Are you comfortable with Carclo's debt? I would like to take a position as operationally it looks like it could be very successful but it is still on a knife edge. High interest rates and any operational misses could hit hard, and cash flow will be swallowed up for a few years on the bank debt + pension, plus 25% of any increases in EBITDA goes towards the pension pot! Thanks in advance!