If anyone wasn't expecting this to escalate they really don't know the middle east.
Will it turn into a war between Iran and Israel? I don't know that either side want that. In the 70's, the middle east war was a different animal. Much smaller rockets, inaccurate, fired over long distances. Today they have weapons with a far greater magnitude of strength and accuracy. Israel is fighting on several fronts and could do without Iran getting involved. Iran are quick to say their 200 rockets (that were pretty ineffective against Israel's Iron Dome) were the end of their attack.
If Israel were to take out all their oil structure it would create higher oil prices but is the world that reliant on oil so much these days? We soon got over Ukraine faster than many expected despite the sanctions.
The real issue is if waterways and high seas get disrupted but then that doesn't help Iran when they need to sell oil.
It's complicated and uncertainty doesn't help the market but it is always hard to know what is priced in and are you selling out when most is priced in, or enough is priced in to make it non-worthwhile imo
Quite possibly, which is part of the reason I'm heavy cash still. But there's an old saying, 'buy on the sound of the first gunfire' That sort of says the mkt has known this is coming for a while and it is already likely priced in perhaps..
I hope I am wrong but I cannot help thinking the markets are underestimating the Middle East situation. Are they really thinking this will end as quickly as it did the last time Israel and Iran attacked eachother in April?
Me thinks this time it's a lot more serious which is why I sold 50% into cash. Maybe foolishly kept the full amount of CMCX but again, they surely must do well with big volatility as well as the other things they have going.
I'm still quite heavy cash.
If anyone wasn't expecting this to escalate they really don't know the middle east.
Will it turn into a war between Iran and Israel? I don't know that either side want that. In the 70's, the middle east war was a different animal. Much smaller rockets, inaccurate, fired over long distances. Today they have weapons with a far greater magnitude of strength and accuracy. Israel is fighting on several fronts and could do without Iran getting involved. Iran are quick to say their 200 rockets (that were pretty ineffective against Israel's Iron Dome) were the end of their attack.
If Israel were to take out all their oil structure it would create higher oil prices but is the world that reliant on oil so much these days? We soon got over Ukraine faster than many expected despite the sanctions.
The real issue is if waterways and high seas get disrupted but then that doesn't help Iran when they need to sell oil.
It's complicated and uncertainty doesn't help the market but it is always hard to know what is priced in and are you selling out when most is priced in, or enough is priced in to make it non-worthwhile imo
Quite possibly, which is part of the reason I'm heavy cash still. But there's an old saying, 'buy on the sound of the first gunfire' That sort of says the mkt has known this is coming for a while and it is already likely priced in perhaps..
The market has many great ways of surprising you.
I still have a lot of CMCX too.
The CMCX chart looks like a tiger waiting to spring. Hopefully.
Hi Rebel
Thanks again for the update.
I hope I am wrong but I cannot help thinking the markets are underestimating the Middle East situation. Are they really thinking this will end as quickly as it did the last time Israel and Iran attacked eachother in April?
Me thinks this time it's a lot more serious which is why I sold 50% into cash. Maybe foolishly kept the full amount of CMCX but again, they surely must do well with big volatility as well as the other things they have going.
Hoping for a peaceful weekend.....
@CARD now on growing bowl on a 10 year chart.
Thanks Rebel. The relevant parties seem determined to
escalate the chances of war. Someone on Stockopedia says they are selling their holdings and adopting a watching brief. Worth a thought.