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Cockney Rebel's avatar

I'm still quite heavy cash.

If anyone wasn't expecting this to escalate they really don't know the middle east.

Will it turn into a war between Iran and Israel? I don't know that either side want that. In the 70's, the middle east war was a different animal. Much smaller rockets, inaccurate, fired over long distances. Today they have weapons with a far greater magnitude of strength and accuracy. Israel is fighting on several fronts and could do without Iran getting involved. Iran are quick to say their 200 rockets (that were pretty ineffective against Israel's Iron Dome) were the end of their attack.

If Israel were to take out all their oil structure it would create higher oil prices but is the world that reliant on oil so much these days? We soon got over Ukraine faster than many expected despite the sanctions.

The real issue is if waterways and high seas get disrupted but then that doesn't help Iran when they need to sell oil.

It's complicated and uncertainty doesn't help the market but it is always hard to know what is priced in and are you selling out when most is priced in, or enough is priced in to make it non-worthwhile imo

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Cockney Rebel's avatar

Quite possibly, which is part of the reason I'm heavy cash still. But there's an old saying, 'buy on the sound of the first gunfire' That sort of says the mkt has known this is coming for a while and it is already likely priced in perhaps..

The market has many great ways of surprising you.

I still have a lot of CMCX too.

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