I bought McBride first in July 2022 adding throughout 2023 up to a max of 50p. I have not sold any and it is my largest holding. I think you are wrong on the need to fundraise. MCB did refinance on 29/09/2022 which cost "11% of any increase from the current market capitalisation". MCB terminated the 'Upside Sharing Fee' on 25/10/2023 for a cash settlement of £5m. This was beneficial to MCB once the share price hit 50p. The MCB board could of diluted in 2022 but avoided it.
SCSW "X" feed reported on 29/11/2023 "I've just never seen anything like it. Can't keep up, selling all we produce and we've have paid £24m+ off the debt since June,".
Since the all time MCB high in 2017 (£2+) the number of shares in circulation has fallen 5% due to an ill timed share buyback.
Forecast EBITDA for FY24 (06/24) is £83.65m verses the previous record of around £50m
IMO the MCB share price was well "managed" in 2023 but since the SCSW tip in December a short seller has been trying to move the price down.
MCB have a Capital Markets Day on 13 March
My own thoughts on MCB are on ADVFN, which will also no doubt be biased due to my holding.
You may also be interested in the long smooth bowls forming in LIO and SFOR
Thanks for your reply re MCB. Me and MCB go back a long way. I've seen the boards come and go there. I may be too sceptical but in an inflationary environment, MCB often do well. Supemarkets don't mind their supply prices rising if they can raise them even more. It's when consumers feel the pinch and interest rates are falling, and supermarkets get into price wars that they then squeeze their suppliers and that's usually when MCB feel it. So I would just be a tad cautious when supermarkets start the price wars. Have a look back at a 20 year chart - MCB rattle away but the second they start to get squeezed they lose 70% or more of their mkt cap, 4 times they have had 70% falls in 20 years, I agree, the recent chart is a bowl and it may be worth playing it, just make sure you are out well before one of those tops and when the superrmarkets want pay back for the good time they are currently letting MCB have imo. I hope you make out well on them tho, timing is always the secret.
I hold LIO as a sizeable holding, been pointing the bowl out on Twitter for a couple of months or more. if they doubled they would still be paying a 5%+ divi and they are debt-free - just need inflows rather than outflows which I suspect we are not far from, and the market looks 6 months- 9 months out. A one-bagger or more in quicktime, waiting to happen I suspect.
SFOR, yep, looks like a bowl in the making. Can I buy it? I think if I did I'd have to hold my nose as I cannot abide Martin Sorrell. If that curve started curving up I definitely wouldn't want to be fighting it tho.
I had looked back at MCB's history and the impression I got was that MCB were hurt early in the inflation cycle when input inflation started to pick up but they were an early winner when input prices started to fall. I would agree that supermarkets will squeeze prices when they see supplier profits. The sweet spot should be 2024.
CR, Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
I bought McBride first in July 2022 adding throughout 2023 up to a max of 50p. I have not sold any and it is my largest holding. I think you are wrong on the need to fundraise. MCB did refinance on 29/09/2022 which cost "11% of any increase from the current market capitalisation". MCB terminated the 'Upside Sharing Fee' on 25/10/2023 for a cash settlement of £5m. This was beneficial to MCB once the share price hit 50p. The MCB board could of diluted in 2022 but avoided it.
SCSW "X" feed reported on 29/11/2023 "I've just never seen anything like it. Can't keep up, selling all we produce and we've have paid £24m+ off the debt since June,".
Since the all time MCB high in 2017 (£2+) the number of shares in circulation has fallen 5% due to an ill timed share buyback.
Forecast EBITDA for FY24 (06/24) is £83.65m verses the previous record of around £50m
IMO the MCB share price was well "managed" in 2023 but since the SCSW tip in December a short seller has been trying to move the price down.
MCB have a Capital Markets Day on 13 March
My own thoughts on MCB are on ADVFN, which will also no doubt be biased due to my holding.
You may also be interested in the long smooth bowls forming in LIO and SFOR
Hi Darrin,
Thanks for your reply re MCB. Me and MCB go back a long way. I've seen the boards come and go there. I may be too sceptical but in an inflationary environment, MCB often do well. Supemarkets don't mind their supply prices rising if they can raise them even more. It's when consumers feel the pinch and interest rates are falling, and supermarkets get into price wars that they then squeeze their suppliers and that's usually when MCB feel it. So I would just be a tad cautious when supermarkets start the price wars. Have a look back at a 20 year chart - MCB rattle away but the second they start to get squeezed they lose 70% or more of their mkt cap, 4 times they have had 70% falls in 20 years, I agree, the recent chart is a bowl and it may be worth playing it, just make sure you are out well before one of those tops and when the superrmarkets want pay back for the good time they are currently letting MCB have imo. I hope you make out well on them tho, timing is always the secret.
I hold LIO as a sizeable holding, been pointing the bowl out on Twitter for a couple of months or more. if they doubled they would still be paying a 5%+ divi and they are debt-free - just need inflows rather than outflows which I suspect we are not far from, and the market looks 6 months- 9 months out. A one-bagger or more in quicktime, waiting to happen I suspect.
SFOR, yep, looks like a bowl in the making. Can I buy it? I think if I did I'd have to hold my nose as I cannot abide Martin Sorrell. If that curve started curving up I definitely wouldn't want to be fighting it tho.
Thanks for the feedback and all the best.
Richard
I had looked back at MCB's history and the impression I got was that MCB were hurt early in the inflation cycle when input inflation started to pick up but they were an early winner when input prices started to fall. I would agree that supermarkets will squeeze prices when they see supplier profits. The sweet spot should be 2024.
Yes, may be a way to go yet before they get squeezed. Past boards haven't been much cop either so this lot might be different.
All the best