I did the same when I started and it took me time to hone what I do. But constantly back testing and focusing on what woks and what doesn't has helped me improve massively. I still do the odd daft thing but I've learned that what initially looks boring is often 'very exciting about to happen', and what often looks very exciting has more than that built intro the price and can often only disappoint.
Learning the mistakes is the key, as you have done - some people never learn. I know of at least two that have made £5m being a bit lucky and then given it all back - you rarely hit a lucky jackpot twice.
When I bought my first 8 bagger, Hornby, at just 140p, everyone said 'what, the old model trains?' while everyone ignored it. 3 years later no end of press and tipsters were saying buy Hornby at £10+ and saying it was thee most exciting consumer stock.
Boring is good - if it initially sounds uninteresting to you, it likely sounds uninteresting to everyone else - that's when it's cheap. You just have to catch them as the story is changing.
Reluctantly I have sold AT. I'm not sure it can double in a year from here as much as some others can, being on such a high.
MPAC I do think can double over 12 months. Adam Holland is targeting doubling earnings in 3 years but that doesn't take into account Freyr. Also, there's a lot of re-shoring going on and companies need to automate and increase speeds. For that reason I think Holland's targets are perhaps quite conservative. The pension deficit looks like being resolved within 2 years too and that will boost for cash. I also think they are a likely bid target, especially once Freyr is a goer, likely to be a target for the likes of Melrose. Next trading update early July.
I hold AT. but like you I guess, need to sell something to make room for new and more exciting opportunities. For me AT. is up 25% whereas others bought at the same time are up far more (Avon, CMCX etc). I echo what Gary said earlier about chasing the wrong shares, and now making serious % profits in quicker time than ever before. So again, thanks for your time on this.
I agree re Adam Holland, you listen to him and he seems to know exactly what he's talking about and comes across as highly knowledgeable and credible. If June and July can be as exciting as May has been.............
I agree - MPAC excites me as they have a new CEO physicist and formerly of JCB and RR. - god learning grounds. He doesn't over promise but when he talks you can see there's stuff he'd like to say but can't. Freyr in it for free and possibly more from Ilika, and others in the battery sector.
Priced as an engineering or industrial but bordering on a tech co really and one of those rare co's that can deliver high speed production lines and are still small.
Hi Richard. Really look forward to reading your weekly email - thanks so much for spending time each week putting it together. Having spent a number of years ‘investing’ or more accurately ’gambling’, initially in funds then later years in shares I haven’t seem to have got anywhere! I think I’ve made all the new investor mistakes.. following so called twitter experts, chasing the jam tomorrow shares, the next big thing tech companies, no production miners and ‘big discovery’ around the corner oilers.. only to be consistently disappointed and the portfolio slowly erased. I can honestly say since following you last year and receiving the email I think I’ve finally actually started to get ‘it’. Your insights into companies, and how it translates into the share price has been transformative for my way of thinking. Out with the rubbish and in with quality companies, actually making money. Rather than hoping some POS (piece of shit!) oiler will one bag overnight I now have a number just slowly doing their thing and gradually increasing. I now take time to research a company and understand what they’re doing. Why it’s taken me this long to realise my mistakes is anyone’s guess! But all I can say is thanks again and please keep it up!
Hi Gary, thanks for sharing, a very refreshing insight to learning the hard way, we've all had our moments and I'm sure many of us can feel your pain! There are plenty of good and educational investing blogs aren't there, but they can sometimes be a bit dry, whereas somehow CR has become mandatory weekend reading because his is also entertaining and motivating. Best wishes,
I think the polls on TV have been such that nobody thinks anyone other than Labour are going to win so where would the negative surprise be? If Labour end up with a small majority it's a win for the mkt. A hung parliament would mean the excessive stuff doesn't make law and Labour's term is short lived. Apart from a 3 way split Tory/Labour/Others then it's all baked in imo.
Yes, I think they can double again in a year. Sales growth has been less that pedestrian due to killing off loss-making sales. Going fwd they are forecast to grow sales at £25m or around 3%.
They say they are aspiring to get to 5.0% adjusted operating margin and say they are half way there. They also expect to get to $38M profit, the past co record.
Forecast to do $37.0 pbt this year, I think they are setting themselves a low hurdle.
In pence, rather than cents, the eps consensus has risen in recent days from 8.2p to 10.2p. For the coming year it is near 18p.
Personally, I think 18p will be a low bar and they will manage at least 20p. So I try to look forward and ask what will the forward earnings forecasts be in 12 months. Let's say they hit 20p this year, looking forward to 25p in 2026 and putting the stock on a PE of 15 gives £3 a share. That would be my minimum expectation get margins and sales a little higher and they get to £4+ and they have the momentum imo.
So while it isn't nailed om I think it is highly possible as they could rate much higher than a PE of 15 for the momentum,
They did 40p eps in 2019 with 66% of the current shares in issue so the same profit would only make 30p ep.s But they will have 30% more sales now and higher margins. So there's a lot of recovery tail winds when yo look in the rear view mirror imo.
Hi Richard. Just wanted to ask if you think IGR can double again in 12 months, having just doubled recently? I can see they aspire to achieve pre Covid operating margins in fy25, but I think they were on a high pe back then, with what looks like decent uplifts year on year in turnover too, which was probably factored into the valuation at the time. Whereas current forecasted turnover looks rather flat. Might mean they won't achieve a similar rating even if they do hit 4.5% margins in fy25?
P.s. Thank you for your invaluable insights. Thanks to you, I hope to retire much earlier than I thought I would!!
Interesting week Richard, I must stop drinking coffee while I read your article, the coffee puts your positivity on steroids. I took some confidence in Friday's market after an already decent week, the 250 turnaround you mentioned produced the finish we all want on a Friday, especially leading into a bank holiday weekend! Given it was a politicians week, do you think the market has already moved past the uncertainty of an election and will simply be glad to get it over whatever the outcome, afterall it's coming sooner than most commentators expected? Or looking back at similar events do you see any dangers as a result of the uncertainty? Thanks as always,
Thank you Gary.
I did the same when I started and it took me time to hone what I do. But constantly back testing and focusing on what woks and what doesn't has helped me improve massively. I still do the odd daft thing but I've learned that what initially looks boring is often 'very exciting about to happen', and what often looks very exciting has more than that built intro the price and can often only disappoint.
Learning the mistakes is the key, as you have done - some people never learn. I know of at least two that have made £5m being a bit lucky and then given it all back - you rarely hit a lucky jackpot twice.
When I bought my first 8 bagger, Hornby, at just 140p, everyone said 'what, the old model trains?' while everyone ignored it. 3 years later no end of press and tipsters were saying buy Hornby at £10+ and saying it was thee most exciting consumer stock.
Boring is good - if it initially sounds uninteresting to you, it likely sounds uninteresting to everyone else - that's when it's cheap. You just have to catch them as the story is changing.
Good luck and well done
Richard
Can I post this comment on Twitter without putting your name please?
Hi Stephen
Reluctantly I have sold AT. I'm not sure it can double in a year from here as much as some others can, being on such a high.
MPAC I do think can double over 12 months. Adam Holland is targeting doubling earnings in 3 years but that doesn't take into account Freyr. Also, there's a lot of re-shoring going on and companies need to automate and increase speeds. For that reason I think Holland's targets are perhaps quite conservative. The pension deficit looks like being resolved within 2 years too and that will boost for cash. I also think they are a likely bid target, especially once Freyr is a goer, likely to be a target for the likes of Melrose. Next trading update early July.
Thanks Richard.
I hold AT. but like you I guess, need to sell something to make room for new and more exciting opportunities. For me AT. is up 25% whereas others bought at the same time are up far more (Avon, CMCX etc). I echo what Gary said earlier about chasing the wrong shares, and now making serious % profits in quicker time than ever before. So again, thanks for your time on this.
I agree re Adam Holland, you listen to him and he seems to know exactly what he's talking about and comes across as highly knowledgeable and credible. If June and July can be as exciting as May has been.............
I agree - MPAC excites me as they have a new CEO physicist and formerly of JCB and RR. - god learning grounds. He doesn't over promise but when he talks you can see there's stuff he'd like to say but can't. Freyr in it for free and possibly more from Ilika, and others in the battery sector.
Priced as an engineering or industrial but bordering on a tech co really and one of those rare co's that can deliver high speed production lines and are still small.
Hi Richard. Really look forward to reading your weekly email - thanks so much for spending time each week putting it together. Having spent a number of years ‘investing’ or more accurately ’gambling’, initially in funds then later years in shares I haven’t seem to have got anywhere! I think I’ve made all the new investor mistakes.. following so called twitter experts, chasing the jam tomorrow shares, the next big thing tech companies, no production miners and ‘big discovery’ around the corner oilers.. only to be consistently disappointed and the portfolio slowly erased. I can honestly say since following you last year and receiving the email I think I’ve finally actually started to get ‘it’. Your insights into companies, and how it translates into the share price has been transformative for my way of thinking. Out with the rubbish and in with quality companies, actually making money. Rather than hoping some POS (piece of shit!) oiler will one bag overnight I now have a number just slowly doing their thing and gradually increasing. I now take time to research a company and understand what they’re doing. Why it’s taken me this long to realise my mistakes is anyone’s guess! But all I can say is thanks again and please keep it up!
Hi Gary, thanks for sharing, a very refreshing insight to learning the hard way, we've all had our moments and I'm sure many of us can feel your pain! There are plenty of good and educational investing blogs aren't there, but they can sometimes be a bit dry, whereas somehow CR has become mandatory weekend reading because his is also entertaining and motivating. Best wishes,
I think the polls on TV have been such that nobody thinks anyone other than Labour are going to win so where would the negative surprise be? If Labour end up with a small majority it's a win for the mkt. A hung parliament would mean the excessive stuff doesn't make law and Labour's term is short lived. Apart from a 3 way split Tory/Labour/Others then it's all baked in imo.
Thank you Tein
Hi Ian
Yes, I think they can double again in a year. Sales growth has been less that pedestrian due to killing off loss-making sales. Going fwd they are forecast to grow sales at £25m or around 3%.
They say they are aspiring to get to 5.0% adjusted operating margin and say they are half way there. They also expect to get to $38M profit, the past co record.
Forecast to do $37.0 pbt this year, I think they are setting themselves a low hurdle.
In pence, rather than cents, the eps consensus has risen in recent days from 8.2p to 10.2p. For the coming year it is near 18p.
Personally, I think 18p will be a low bar and they will manage at least 20p. So I try to look forward and ask what will the forward earnings forecasts be in 12 months. Let's say they hit 20p this year, looking forward to 25p in 2026 and putting the stock on a PE of 15 gives £3 a share. That would be my minimum expectation get margins and sales a little higher and they get to £4+ and they have the momentum imo.
So while it isn't nailed om I think it is highly possible as they could rate much higher than a PE of 15 for the momentum,
They did 40p eps in 2019 with 66% of the current shares in issue so the same profit would only make 30p ep.s But they will have 30% more sales now and higher margins. So there's a lot of recovery tail winds when yo look in the rear view mirror imo.
Hope that helps
:-)
Hi Richard. Just wanted to ask if you think IGR can double again in 12 months, having just doubled recently? I can see they aspire to achieve pre Covid operating margins in fy25, but I think they were on a high pe back then, with what looks like decent uplifts year on year in turnover too, which was probably factored into the valuation at the time. Whereas current forecasted turnover looks rather flat. Might mean they won't achieve a similar rating even if they do hit 4.5% margins in fy25?
P.s. Thank you for your invaluable insights. Thanks to you, I hope to retire much earlier than I thought I would!!
Racy reporting. Pity Bloomsbury doesn’t have you on their books!
Interesting week Richard, I must stop drinking coffee while I read your article, the coffee puts your positivity on steroids. I took some confidence in Friday's market after an already decent week, the 250 turnaround you mentioned produced the finish we all want on a Friday, especially leading into a bank holiday weekend! Given it was a politicians week, do you think the market has already moved past the uncertainty of an election and will simply be glad to get it over whatever the outcome, afterall it's coming sooner than most commentators expected? Or looking back at similar events do you see any dangers as a result of the uncertainty? Thanks as always,
Thanks for the update. The last few weeks have certainly been really profitable.
Do you still hold AT. and do you think MPAC can double over the next 12 months?