Arsenal - tho I've not really had much interest in football over the past 10 years, it isn't the same, teams are now just fronts for a huge money machine now. I know it has been ever increasingly that way but now it's ruined the game for me. Bungs, clubs being docked points at no set rules/timescale, VAR, taking the knee, players kissing the badge this week and wanting a transfer next week........I'm a grumpy old man getting my entertainment elsewhere most of the time these days :-)
I think car dealerships are a different kettle of fish. Enterprise Inns and Green King sold off large amounts of their estate on an individual basis to locals who want to run the pubs themselves. My village pub was one of them. Many pubs were sold at well over book value. If you sell off the toughest pubs to the locals and keep your most profitable then value builds. In 2018 MARS were doing 14p eps, the same amount of shares in issue still and debt will be lower this year than then too. They were trading at circa 120p back then.
Nope, yo have got it. The issue has been there has been no direction by the co. A new CEO seems to have a plan and they are going to be a pure pub play. Some of those properties may be worth potentially more too. Perhaps reduce the estate, sell off those pubs that can't make a profit to locals to run as co-ops, has worked for Enterprise and Green King. keep an estate of the best pubs and up the service/offer. Possibly not a difficult turnaround with a bit of focus.
On my watchlist, mainly as I have a mate with a coach co doing rather well lately.
The new CFO in place and there has been a bit of dir buying, and the chart may be bottoming but Ignacio Garat still CEO, he has been there 4 years - that's way too long to wait for a recovery - not sure the co will live up to his recent enthusiasm/confidence. A watch for now for me.
I wish I could like Marstons and the book value of the properties is tempting but we had a meal in one of their busier sites recently and a lot of the menu items were "off". We asked about this and were told they recently reorganised their supply chain and it's not working. Late deliveries, missed deliveries, incorrect deliveries, lack of communication - it's driving the staff mad. The manageress told me it was making her depressed because she simply couldn't do her job properly. And the food items on the menu are mostly mediocre centrally prepared microwave stuff, just like chilled ready meals in a supermarket. Brake Brothers type carp. So I'm guessing anyone buying the shares now is just looking at the financials and hoping the book value of the properties is right.
Thanks Michael, always good to hear the negative as well as the positive. It can be hard judging on one pub but I take on board what they say. It is sort of cheapo food, but that' appeals to families on budgets. I've tried two near me and they were fine as far as the food and service went. The new CEO has been in place since November. I think if they have made major changes it will take a bit of time to bed in and certain areas or pubs may have issues, I don't know. There's a good webcast from the results that's worth watching. Like I say, at this point it's about having faith in the new CEO. Director buying recently suggests directors feel good about him. I could be wrong but hopefully I'm right and you aren't :-) The proof of the pudding and all that.
Thanks for replying. One should never buy or sell shares because of a single sample of the product or service but Marstons don't pass the "sniff" test for me. Maybe if their pubs can become housing sites? Hmmm....
I was a property guy most of my professional life. I always worry when people buy listed businesses because of the properties in the balance sheet. A lot of the time the properties are really only worth the book value while they can be used for the current business. Right now this is especially the case for car dealerships many of which are problematic as MEES becomes more and more relevant. What is a car dealership's property worth if the dealership can't make a profit? There are exactly 5 years and 4 months left before the last new internal combustion car is sold lawfully in the UK and my guess is the manufacturers will pull out soon because they can't sell enough Electric Vehicles to avoid the £15,000 fine per vehicle. So what is the market price of a car dealership property if the dealership has pulled out? Obviously it's worth something but is it worth the current book value?
Thanks for your thoughts Cockney. Nowadays, Fridays are a waste of time with the wide price spreads off-putting. No doubt the activity will pick up after the hols.
Arsenal - tho I've not really had much interest in football over the past 10 years, it isn't the same, teams are now just fronts for a huge money machine now. I know it has been ever increasingly that way but now it's ruined the game for me. Bungs, clubs being docked points at no set rules/timescale, VAR, taking the knee, players kissing the badge this week and wanting a transfer next week........I'm a grumpy old man getting my entertainment elsewhere most of the time these days :-)
Agreed. The only joy I have is watching the competing big clubs bring beaten by each other. 40,000 mugs going home miserable. Lovely.
I think car dealerships are a different kettle of fish. Enterprise Inns and Green King sold off large amounts of their estate on an individual basis to locals who want to run the pubs themselves. My village pub was one of them. Many pubs were sold at well over book value. If you sell off the toughest pubs to the locals and keep your most profitable then value builds. In 2018 MARS were doing 14p eps, the same amount of shares in issue still and debt will be lower this year than then too. They were trading at circa 120p back then.
Nope, yo have got it. The issue has been there has been no direction by the co. A new CEO seems to have a plan and they are going to be a pure pub play. Some of those properties may be worth potentially more too. Perhaps reduce the estate, sell off those pubs that can't make a profit to locals to run as co-ops, has worked for Enterprise and Green King. keep an estate of the best pubs and up the service/offer. Possibly not a difficult turnaround with a bit of focus.
On my watchlist, mainly as I have a mate with a coach co doing rather well lately.
The new CFO in place and there has been a bit of dir buying, and the chart may be bottoming but Ignacio Garat still CEO, he has been there 4 years - that's way too long to wait for a recovery - not sure the co will live up to his recent enthusiasm/confidence. A watch for now for me.
Really enjoy the Friday update CR - thank you!
Marstons - property NAV of £0.95 pence per share, current share price is £0.43. Am I missing something or is this screaming value?
I wish I could like Marstons and the book value of the properties is tempting but we had a meal in one of their busier sites recently and a lot of the menu items were "off". We asked about this and were told they recently reorganised their supply chain and it's not working. Late deliveries, missed deliveries, incorrect deliveries, lack of communication - it's driving the staff mad. The manageress told me it was making her depressed because she simply couldn't do her job properly. And the food items on the menu are mostly mediocre centrally prepared microwave stuff, just like chilled ready meals in a supermarket. Brake Brothers type carp. So I'm guessing anyone buying the shares now is just looking at the financials and hoping the book value of the properties is right.
Thanks Michael, always good to hear the negative as well as the positive. It can be hard judging on one pub but I take on board what they say. It is sort of cheapo food, but that' appeals to families on budgets. I've tried two near me and they were fine as far as the food and service went. The new CEO has been in place since November. I think if they have made major changes it will take a bit of time to bed in and certain areas or pubs may have issues, I don't know. There's a good webcast from the results that's worth watching. Like I say, at this point it's about having faith in the new CEO. Director buying recently suggests directors feel good about him. I could be wrong but hopefully I'm right and you aren't :-) The proof of the pudding and all that.
Thanks for replying. One should never buy or sell shares because of a single sample of the product or service but Marstons don't pass the "sniff" test for me. Maybe if their pubs can become housing sites? Hmmm....
I was a property guy most of my professional life. I always worry when people buy listed businesses because of the properties in the balance sheet. A lot of the time the properties are really only worth the book value while they can be used for the current business. Right now this is especially the case for car dealerships many of which are problematic as MEES becomes more and more relevant. What is a car dealership's property worth if the dealership can't make a profit? There are exactly 5 years and 4 months left before the last new internal combustion car is sold lawfully in the UK and my guess is the manufacturers will pull out soon because they can't sell enough Electric Vehicles to avoid the £15,000 fine per vehicle. So what is the market price of a car dealership property if the dealership has pulled out? Obviously it's worth something but is it worth the current book value?
Good thoughts as always rebel. What football team do you support by the way?
Any views on #MCG as a turnaround play ?
Thanks for your thoughts Cockney. Nowadays, Fridays are a waste of time with the wide price spreads off-putting. No doubt the activity will pick up after the hols.