Generally enjoy your thoughts CR but some truly laughable political comments by yourself this week.
The idea that Boris Johnson brought the Olympics to London is hilarious. You clearly have no idea of what went into that bid and made it successful. DYOR.
I’m not a labour supporter, but someone has to sort out the mess that these people left this country in . Your people, by the sound of it.
Stick to what you know and understand - no one cares about your biased political views
Boris was great as Mayor for London - every stunt free marketing for the city. What has Sadiq Can't done...take a walk around (or not in some places). Would make you weep.
Just because you go to a public school doesn’t mean anything - Johnson being a classic example. In terms of Ukraine we haven’t given away millions - we are quiet rightly helping Ukraine
I went to a comprehensive, the education was crap. You never did business studies or learned economics You never had the resources that a public school has. The bulk of Labour come from state schools and while there are some very good ones, the bulk of state school educated people are less educated than in private schools where class sizes are smaller, resources are greater and kids generally have a better time. This is why Labour hates private schools, it's envy - it is simply a fact, not fair but life isn't fair, we just need to keep trying to make it fairer. I'd have loved a private school education but I came from a council estate in Hainault, I had one parent as my mother died when I was 12 - it was never going to be affordable. I'm not bitter about it though, I think ruddy good luck if your parents worked hard and want to pay for your education, lets try and drag more kids up into that bracket, not pull them back.
And therefore Labour's mass of MPs , most of whom likely went to state school, don't have another person on the benches that could do a credible job as chancellor, and the bond market told us all that this week.
I disliked the Tories for the past 10 years, but they did have no end of people that could do the job of chancellor with some financial nous, simply because so many were privately educated and studied ecomomics etc. Comprehensives were teaching domestic science, metalwork, woodwork.
Yes, we have to support Ukraine - but we cannot be the lead sponsor when we are skint. We need to provide more soft help, like reconnaissance, intelligence etc. Let the EU and Germany and Poland do more, they are nearer the battleground and bigger than us.
I went to a great comprehensive school. Got great results and never held me back. It’s a mindset. People like Johnson play on the public school persona - the world has moved on for charlatans like him.
Sorry but you are wrong. My point was about motivation, positivity, glass half full, not glass half empty - someone who is going to lead the troops from the front with a battle cry.
You'd really like to be a soldier led over the top by Starmer shouting "let's go guys, we're all gonna die!?"
Sorry but the point is the same - a country needs motivating whether you believe it yourself or not. Starmer isn't a motivator.
Dale Carnegie - The first chapter of "How to Win Friends and Influence People" emphasises the futility of criticism, condemnation, and complaining. It suggests that focusing on the positive aspects of people and situations, rather than dwelling on negative ones, is a more effective approach to building relationships and influencing others.
Have followed and enjoyed your thoughts for a few years now and particularly pay attention to your bowls/hockey stick charts. I find them a good source of ideas to investigate further. Cwr , ceres power , seems to fulfil the criteria you look for … a chart just starting to turn up after years of underperformance and potential positive news on the way.
I'm a hydrogen sceptic, I'm not sure the energy used to create it is green enough or makes it cheap enough.
I was supposed to have been given a test home power back up from E-On, created by CWR 10 years ago to test for them after several power cuts - it never materialied. Perhaps I need to swat up on the tech - thanks
hi CR, I think what is interesting is that modern closed cycle gas turbine are about 45% efficient and that a SOFC is 60% efficient and you can feed natural gas to an electrolyser - instead of hydrogen. From that perspective and combined with us Nat gas being at or near to a zero price (eg in the Permian) well it is a no brainer imo OB (lead times for gas generation equipment being another factor)
Cheers. I think it is probably beyond my understanding or the desire to do enough research to understand it enough, and then not know what the competition is like. It will likely rally no matter what tho, if markets stay firm, CWR is a good bull market proxy.
Thanks Ricard as always very illuminating. Being a fifties child, I have lived through quite a few governments this lot are the worst by a country mile. The only saving grace is we are blessed by some great businesses and hope they can bear the weight being loaded on them by bunch of socialist incompetents. Early visit to pub is required to lift the depressiveness of Stammer and his lot.
Rachel from accountants is about to be sacked the market ought to be flying. I trade the US markets now, ive lingered for to long time finally making this decision in April , How good was this for me …... Fx fees and all…..better set ups, better swing trades, better liquidity . Uk is absolute rubbish. No wonder AZN wants out . good luck , ive made more in the us markets than i’ve lost in the FtSe whatever index. You’re backing the losing horse Richard . The usa leads the world and is Top Dog.
That’s my 2 cents . britain’s has been broken for quite a while decades , unless a complete over haul of the political system it’s doomed for further decline , they are managing decline.
I prefer to stick to my knitting. Forex I would be a small fish in a huge ocean. What's RR. ? Up 12 old in 2 years? WRKS up 100%+ in a month. KIE one-bagged in 10 weeks.
Well the USA is huge country and it also has its laggards. I am Brit and will continue to invest in great British companies. The USA depends on British companies to prosper just look at the number of UK companies acquired over the yrs. In spite of useless politicians Britain's contribution to the modern world is huge, we will have our day in the sun again.
Head over the parapet. Any thoughts on Lion trust (LIO). Price down after the divvi, which was to be expected, but is it holding steady with a possible new broom sweeping through. As always I enjoy your views and humourous slant on the action. Thanks
The new divi policy of at least 50% of eps leaves it on a decent yield and a much more solid support than it had imo. It just needs the managers to start growing earning and getting inflow like all of these asset co's. Not the potential rapid multibagger it might have been now tho.
I invested into Greggs on last warning at under £18 but i'm not really a fan now - i always was but the high valuation put me off. The rainbow coloured annual report, HR manager as CEO, store saturation, how much is theft a drag on profit?
WoS - luxe watch area is highly competitive and more capital intensive than people realise investing in the stores, brand events, fixed gross margins. Unless they get another 30% flash SP hit then leave it alone. They've had a couple over past year and maybe more tarrifs later this year might knock again. No real assets either on balance sheet.
Sticking with stocks. I had holdings, fortunately modest, in both MPAC and Kitwave. I exited both once they bounced off their profit warning lows for a loss of about 25%. Could have been worse and no one gets it right all the time, especially me. I used some of the proceeds to open a starter position in Topps Tiles. Their Q3 update on Wednesday was very promising with group adjusted sales up 10.1% in the quarter versus 4.1% in the first half. On a year-to-date basis, Group adjusted sales were 6.1% higher year-on-year, which is ahead of Zeus's forecast of 3.9% prior to the update.
The RNS also states "Given the strong growth in sales, improved gross margins and cost management actions, the Group expects operating costs in the second half to grow at a lower rate than gross profits". This implies an improvement in operating margins.
However Zeus has maintained its forecast despite the increased revenue due an increase in costs. So at present forecasts for year end Sept 25 are PE 11.3 and yield 7.3%. FY26 PE 7.9 and yield 8.4%. There will be a new CEO from next January. Net debt excluding IFRS16 leases is low but I need to do some more homework however it looks interesting at the current price.
I have also opened a position in B&M European. The new CEO, Tjeerd Jegen who took up the role on 16th June spent £520,000 of his own money buying 197,000 shares.
Both of the above look good value to me at current prices but so did Kitwave and MPAC.
Yes, I looked at TPT, it is interesting but the chart isn't yet telling me to buy so I am watching for now.
B&M - on my recovery list and watching too. Good to see a new board but remember with many of these CEO contracts they may be obliged to buy a certain number of shares over a certain time. It will be more revealing if other directors make decent purchase as that might show what they think of him and any changes he makes.
Completely agree. Governments control taxes and regulations that affect businesses in so many ways. They say what you can pay and what you can't, they set the rules in the workplace. They massively affect how businesses perform - just compare US policy over 15 years to that of the UK and the stock markets of each.
Some won't like it - politics is tribal. I read views I disagree with too, but I accept it is the view of somebody else and we are not all the same. No good me throwing my toys out the pram every time someone says something I disagree with. You have to watch the macro and the micro.
Thanks Rebel - what a shambles this government is making of their huge majority and in record time!
I agree with your sentiment on MPAC and WOSG. No matter what I do and when I do it, I never ever timed the purchases of these two stocks well, and always end up losing out. Luckily, I didn’t have any MPAC this time around but like you, I did dabble a smaller trade in WOSG believing the update would be better. This was against my better judgement given the farcical update they gave us 18 months ago.
I’m going to leave these two alone from now on!
Do you have any view on JD sports? I managed to buy the very recent dip as they looked cheap. Could they be about to break free and go back over a pound?
Hi Stephen. Yep, I am going to try to leave both alone too.
JD. - chart seems to be making a bottom. They will likely benefit from the weaker $. I just never trusted Peter Cowgill at any co he was at MBL and United Carpets he was involved with - both scored badly on trustworthy test and ended badly. He left JD. abruptly - why? Was there something the co never revealed? Skeletons in the cupboard? The shares have tanked since he went.
2 Andrews bought shares in Nov but that is it - no other dir buying. The shares have halved since August. Think I'd wait for the Aug trading update.
Yep, sold MSI. I have so many other holdings where I am much more confident, I just prefer to move on. It never was a long term hold for me unless the news was really good, a trade that might be a hold.
Generally enjoy your thoughts CR but some truly laughable political comments by yourself this week.
The idea that Boris Johnson brought the Olympics to London is hilarious. You clearly have no idea of what went into that bid and made it successful. DYOR.
I’m not a labour supporter, but someone has to sort out the mess that these people left this country in . Your people, by the sound of it.
Stick to what you know and understand - no one cares about your biased political views
yes, I think Boris claiming Wiff Waff coming home and hanging from a zip wire clouded my menory.
The point is the same though - he was 'can do', Starmer is just uninspiring to the point of depression.
Boris was great as Mayor for London - every stunt free marketing for the city. What has Sadiq Can't done...take a walk around (or not in some places). Would make you weep.
Just because you go to a public school doesn’t mean anything - Johnson being a classic example. In terms of Ukraine we haven’t given away millions - we are quiet rightly helping Ukraine
defend against Putin’s murderous regime.
I went to a comprehensive, the education was crap. You never did business studies or learned economics You never had the resources that a public school has. The bulk of Labour come from state schools and while there are some very good ones, the bulk of state school educated people are less educated than in private schools where class sizes are smaller, resources are greater and kids generally have a better time. This is why Labour hates private schools, it's envy - it is simply a fact, not fair but life isn't fair, we just need to keep trying to make it fairer. I'd have loved a private school education but I came from a council estate in Hainault, I had one parent as my mother died when I was 12 - it was never going to be affordable. I'm not bitter about it though, I think ruddy good luck if your parents worked hard and want to pay for your education, lets try and drag more kids up into that bracket, not pull them back.
And therefore Labour's mass of MPs , most of whom likely went to state school, don't have another person on the benches that could do a credible job as chancellor, and the bond market told us all that this week.
I disliked the Tories for the past 10 years, but they did have no end of people that could do the job of chancellor with some financial nous, simply because so many were privately educated and studied ecomomics etc. Comprehensives were teaching domestic science, metalwork, woodwork.
Yes, we have to support Ukraine - but we cannot be the lead sponsor when we are skint. We need to provide more soft help, like reconnaissance, intelligence etc. Let the EU and Germany and Poland do more, they are nearer the battleground and bigger than us.
I went to a great comprehensive school. Got great results and never held me back. It’s a mindset. People like Johnson play on the public school persona - the world has moved on for charlatans like him.
there's a lot wrong with public schools too. Going to a comprehensive probably gives you a more balanced grounding imo.
A third of current Labour MPs went to fee-paying schools.
Wrong figure. A fifth.
Smart Alec alert - Ken Livingstone was mayor, not Johnson, when London won the Olympics
So he was - perhaps "Wiff Waff is coming home" and him dangling from a zip wire with his nuts in a truss clouded my memory :-)
Trouble is , these sort of blatant political and yet incorrect statements totally diminish your credibility
So how can anyone rely on your opinions on anything else ?
As I said, my memory was clouded by Wiff Waff coming home.
But the point is the same - Boris motivated, can do attitude. Starmer has had a charisma-ectomy.
Dear me, oh dear.
Not your fault Im sure !
The point is not the same ….you prefer a liar . Others may prefer someone honest.
The point of all this is that it diminishes your credibility .
Sorry but you are wrong. My point was about motivation, positivity, glass half full, not glass half empty - someone who is going to lead the troops from the front with a battle cry.
You'd really like to be a soldier led over the top by Starmer shouting "let's go guys, we're all gonna die!?"
Sorry but the point is the same - a country needs motivating whether you believe it yourself or not. Starmer isn't a motivator.
Its just naive thinking.
Theres no such thing.
Your kind of thinking is the reason why the world is saddled with people like Trump/ Putin/Erdogan/ Netanyahu.
When what is needed is sensible, honest, decent leaders who free up the rest of us to do our own motivating and leading
Yes "blatant political and incorrect statements" really do diminish the highlighting of bowls forming on a chart.
How can anyone possibly trust their own eyes now.
If only we were not forced to come here and read the work Richard does weekly for free.
Totally agree.
Thats why I wont be anymore.
Naive, factually incorrect political rants with no basis or even relevance not what I signed up for even if you did
Dale Carnegie - The first chapter of "How to Win Friends and Influence People" emphasises the futility of criticism, condemnation, and complaining. It suggests that focusing on the positive aspects of people and situations, rather than dwelling on negative ones, is a more effective approach to building relationships and influencing others.
CR i thoroughly enjoy your substack.
thank you, that's pleasing.
Have followed and enjoyed your thoughts for a few years now and particularly pay attention to your bowls/hockey stick charts. I find them a good source of ideas to investigate further. Cwr , ceres power , seems to fulfil the criteria you look for … a chart just starting to turn up after years of underperformance and potential positive news on the way.
It probably is a good indicator. CWR not my thing though. It's a good guide to the market though, CWR rallies when our market firms, it's high beta.
Think it’s also a read across to US peers which have reached profitability and to the TINA of using eletrolysers to power new data centres - I cover this in my article https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/cwr-its-a-knockout
Thanks, I'll have a read.
I'm a hydrogen sceptic, I'm not sure the energy used to create it is green enough or makes it cheap enough.
I was supposed to have been given a test home power back up from E-On, created by CWR 10 years ago to test for them after several power cuts - it never materialied. Perhaps I need to swat up on the tech - thanks
hi CR, I think what is interesting is that modern closed cycle gas turbine are about 45% efficient and that a SOFC is 60% efficient and you can feed natural gas to an electrolyser - instead of hydrogen. From that perspective and combined with us Nat gas being at or near to a zero price (eg in the Permian) well it is a no brainer imo OB (lead times for gas generation equipment being another factor)
Cheers. I think it is probably beyond my understanding or the desire to do enough research to understand it enough, and then not know what the competition is like. It will likely rally no matter what tho, if markets stay firm, CWR is a good bull market proxy.
Thanks Ricard as always very illuminating. Being a fifties child, I have lived through quite a few governments this lot are the worst by a country mile. The only saving grace is we are blessed by some great businesses and hope they can bear the weight being loaded on them by bunch of socialist incompetents. Early visit to pub is required to lift the depressiveness of Stammer and his lot.
I agree 100% - get to the pub :-)
Rachel from accountants is about to be sacked the market ought to be flying. I trade the US markets now, ive lingered for to long time finally making this decision in April , How good was this for me …... Fx fees and all…..better set ups, better swing trades, better liquidity . Uk is absolute rubbish. No wonder AZN wants out . good luck , ive made more in the us markets than i’ve lost in the FtSe whatever index. You’re backing the losing horse Richard . The usa leads the world and is Top Dog.
That’s my 2 cents . britain’s has been broken for quite a while decades , unless a complete over haul of the political system it’s doomed for further decline , they are managing decline.
I prefer to stick to my knitting. Forex I would be a small fish in a huge ocean. What's RR. ? Up 12 old in 2 years? WRKS up 100%+ in a month. KIE one-bagged in 10 weeks.
Britain is broken but a lot of UK co's aren't.
yup there’s a few , if you can pick them. I’d add barclays to that list .enjoy your weekend, happy trading.
you too.
Well the USA is huge country and it also has its laggards. I am Brit and will continue to invest in great British companies. The USA depends on British companies to prosper just look at the number of UK companies acquired over the yrs. In spite of useless politicians Britain's contribution to the modern world is huge, we will have our day in the sun again.
Head over the parapet. Any thoughts on Lion trust (LIO). Price down after the divvi, which was to be expected, but is it holding steady with a possible new broom sweeping through. As always I enjoy your views and humourous slant on the action. Thanks
Seems like the new JUP to me. Has a good way to fall yet, I think.
Hi John
The new divi policy of at least 50% of eps leaves it on a decent yield and a much more solid support than it had imo. It just needs the managers to start growing earning and getting inflow like all of these asset co's. Not the potential rapid multibagger it might have been now tho.
I invested into Greggs on last warning at under £18 but i'm not really a fan now - i always was but the high valuation put me off. The rainbow coloured annual report, HR manager as CEO, store saturation, how much is theft a drag on profit?
WoS - luxe watch area is highly competitive and more capital intensive than people realise investing in the stores, brand events, fixed gross margins. Unless they get another 30% flash SP hit then leave it alone. They've had a couple over past year and maybe more tarrifs later this year might knock again. No real assets either on balance sheet.
good points
Hi Richard
Sticking with stocks. I had holdings, fortunately modest, in both MPAC and Kitwave. I exited both once they bounced off their profit warning lows for a loss of about 25%. Could have been worse and no one gets it right all the time, especially me. I used some of the proceeds to open a starter position in Topps Tiles. Their Q3 update on Wednesday was very promising with group adjusted sales up 10.1% in the quarter versus 4.1% in the first half. On a year-to-date basis, Group adjusted sales were 6.1% higher year-on-year, which is ahead of Zeus's forecast of 3.9% prior to the update.
The RNS also states "Given the strong growth in sales, improved gross margins and cost management actions, the Group expects operating costs in the second half to grow at a lower rate than gross profits". This implies an improvement in operating margins.
However Zeus has maintained its forecast despite the increased revenue due an increase in costs. So at present forecasts for year end Sept 25 are PE 11.3 and yield 7.3%. FY26 PE 7.9 and yield 8.4%. There will be a new CEO from next January. Net debt excluding IFRS16 leases is low but I need to do some more homework however it looks interesting at the current price.
I have also opened a position in B&M European. The new CEO, Tjeerd Jegen who took up the role on 16th June spent £520,000 of his own money buying 197,000 shares.
Both of the above look good value to me at current prices but so did Kitwave and MPAC.
All the best
Yes, I looked at TPT, it is interesting but the chart isn't yet telling me to buy so I am watching for now.
B&M - on my recovery list and watching too. Good to see a new board but remember with many of these CEO contracts they may be obliged to buy a certain number of shares over a certain time. It will be more revealing if other directors make decent purchase as that might show what they think of him and any changes he makes.
Cheers.
I like your macro political commentary, even if some others don’t.
Like it or not, government decisions affect the world and national economy and have an impact on the companies we may want to invest in.
So ignoring politics and pretending it doesn’t matter is just being ignorant and will affect your returns.
Although I appreciate that as soon as you say anything political, you’ll get people arguing over which colour tie makes the least worst leaders.
Completely agree. Governments control taxes and regulations that affect businesses in so many ways. They say what you can pay and what you can't, they set the rules in the workplace. They massively affect how businesses perform - just compare US policy over 15 years to that of the UK and the stock markets of each.
Some won't like it - politics is tribal. I read views I disagree with too, but I accept it is the view of somebody else and we are not all the same. No good me throwing my toys out the pram every time someone says something I disagree with. You have to watch the macro and the micro.
CR - are you still holding Watkin Jones? Thanks
yes, though it may be not as fast a mover as I hoped due to the gov recent changes in building regulations that need to get sorted to reduce delays.
Seems to have good support here.
Thanks Rebel - what a shambles this government is making of their huge majority and in record time!
I agree with your sentiment on MPAC and WOSG. No matter what I do and when I do it, I never ever timed the purchases of these two stocks well, and always end up losing out. Luckily, I didn’t have any MPAC this time around but like you, I did dabble a smaller trade in WOSG believing the update would be better. This was against my better judgement given the farcical update they gave us 18 months ago.
I’m going to leave these two alone from now on!
Do you have any view on JD sports? I managed to buy the very recent dip as they looked cheap. Could they be about to break free and go back over a pound?
Hi Stephen. Yep, I am going to try to leave both alone too.
JD. - chart seems to be making a bottom. They will likely benefit from the weaker $. I just never trusted Peter Cowgill at any co he was at MBL and United Carpets he was involved with - both scored badly on trustworthy test and ended badly. He left JD. abruptly - why? Was there something the co never revealed? Skeletons in the cupboard? The shares have tanked since he went.
2 Andrews bought shares in Nov but that is it - no other dir buying. The shares have halved since August. Think I'd wait for the Aug trading update.
Ok thanks
Hello richard, just wondering if you sold on your msi - or what your opinion is on them. Thanks, have agood weekend.
Yep, sold MSI. I have so many other holdings where I am much more confident, I just prefer to move on. It never was a long term hold for me unless the news was really good, a trade that might be a hold.
Thanks Richard, great stuff as always; the omnishambles phrase tickled me !
Cheers