The Weekend Rebel Review, July 5th, 2025

This is just some thoughts, it isn't investment advice or incitement to buy in any way, just my views - please do your own thorough research. I’m not an analyst, I’m just a private investor looking after my own money. Nothing I do or say is meant as advice or should be taken as such. Here I publish my ideas and research that I have done and discuss the way I invest. Anything written here needs to be verified for its accuracy. Assume any stock I write about I likely own, so my views are biased. Inevitably I will get things wrong, everyone is responsible for their own decision making and what they buy and sell. Subscribing and reading this article means you accept the above and you take full responsibility for your own actions and decisions. Small Cap stocks can be illiquid and very hard to sell at times when demand is weak so caution is required.

Expect some spelling mistakes – I’m dyslexic and in a rush to get this out on a Friday so a bit of a task at times.

So at last Starmer has stolen Trump’s thunder, and not in a good way. We seem to have a government that couldn’t organise a free round of drinks without teeing off their friends, the bars staff and everyone else in the pub. Omnishambles – but what makes it worse is this crowd sat in opposition and moaned about everything the Tories did (rightly in some cases) but have got into government and haven’t got a clue – it’s just like watching the Chuckle Brothers fly the Space Shuttle – me to you Rachel, yo to me. It would be funny if it wasn’t so serious. So we sit here as investors today having seen the bond market panic because it looked like Reeves might resign or get sacked. Think about that – Reeves has been astronomically rubbish at chancellor but the market has looked at the whole of the Labour party and said ‘you know what, they have nobody better to step in, in fact if Reeves goes it’s the Shuttle flying by itself – at least there’s an outside chance it can be landed by the Chuckle Brothers!’

You couldn’t make this up. I thought John Major becoming PM when he used to be a bus conductor was amazing enough but here we are. Boris Johnson was a clown at times but he did have a grasp of economics having been to public school and at least a little common sense. This lot have scrapped our fossil fuel industry in all but name, blown billions on Net Zero, given a fortune away to Ukraine, foreign aid, the Chagos Islands and raised NI and the living wage so much so that the cost in lost business and unemployment will be greater than the gain.

More important than all of that though is confidence. Investors don’t want to invest because they have no confidence. Starmer has proved clueless from day one, from the day he gave the most depressing speech from a new PM I have ever heard. At least Blair breathed a bit of belief, a bit of motivation into the country. We know what it is like to be losers, we have all watched England play since 1966. But we want a coach like Bobby Robson or Venables, who used to inspire, who used to motivate, who had real ideas and knew the game. Instead we’ve got Graham Taylor on depressants. Success comes from optimism and belief, the feel good factor, the belief you can win when everything says you are gong to get thrashed’ glass half full, it will be sunny tomorrow mindset. Johnson was an optimists and love him or hate him, as London mayor he won us the Olympics with that optimism. As a nation we felt different and we went on to our greatest Olympic success in those Olympics because we felt motivated and confident. 90% of investing is about the mind, psychology. When you have had a bad run of trades or investments you make poor decisions which exacerbates the poor performance. When you are finding winner you find more of them, because of your positive mindset.

Now while that all sounds depressing, I can’t leave it like that – that would be defeatist. The positive out of all of this is that as a whole, if the market is depressed, share prices are cheap. When do you want to invest? When everyone is excited and chasing share prices to silly valuations? Or do you want to buy very cheaply because nobody else has the faith to? Now is the time of opportunity. In the past year I’ve had several one-baggers or close to it. You get the most one-baggers when markets are cheap. I only look for potential one-baggers. If you buy a stock that you think could one-bag and it fails miserably, it may still do 30-40%. There’s work involved in finding them before everyone else. If you wait till everyone else has found them and are telling you about them then they will probably already have one-bagged. This is part f the reason I say ‘do your own research’, you verify the facts and you find winners before others do.

The shipping index and shipping costs for business have fallen again this week:

The £ has risen 12% v the $ since February

In total, since February, shipping costs have fallen around 25% and the $ which shipping is priced in has fallen a further 12% meaning shipping costs for the likes of UK retailers are down around 40% since February.

Now add in the fact that many purchase stock in $s or currencies tied to the $ and that has fallen 12% too, reducing their purchase costs.

So if you are a retailer or consumer co on squeezed margins, this could have a big effect on your operating profits. The gain may come through more gradual as there will be hedging going on but going forward these co’s should be able to hedge at significantly lower rates of stock purchase and shipping costs.

Fear/Greed – now into extreme greed. Not something to be fearful of but it shows the US as currently over stretched and there is likely to be a profit pull back some time not that far out, probably in July. Keep it rational tho, shares always have pull backs, then move on back up, trying to second guess when that move will come will likely cost more than just riding it out.

The VIX is also low – complacency

The FTSE All World Index has carried on up, breaking out, so perhaps from that, it may be the US that has the pull back far greater than elsewhere, as the US has had the biggest non stop rally.

Nothing in Copper looks alarming either, still testing that recent run of highs.

Meanwhile the Dow Industrial is testing the all time highs – re-shoring starting to have an effect?

On Thursday, Services PMI came in at 52.8, beating the 51.3 expected and the 51.3 achieved last month. Friday, UK Construction PMI came in at 48.8, a tad above the 48.6 expected but still contraction. This was echoed by Gleesons, GLE who warned on Friday. Next Friday is the big UK data dump:

On to stocks

On Tuesday, Kitwave put out their interim results:

You can read the rest where you read your RNS News.

While that all sounded rather good, there was a caveat.

So a scalp for Rachael and her NI rises it would seem. Quite surprising as in March, Chris Young (I presume son of former CEO Paul Young) bought 77,519 shares. You would have thought at that point in time they would have had a good handle on what the NI rises would do. From what they say the drop in trade in their tourist based areas has wrecked the plan so it must be quite significant or they were not applying significant enough weight to NI in the spreadsheet forecasts. The trading update in May gave no hint to this coming.

I had bought my first ‘nibble in’ on the fall a month or so ago after discussing them here – thankfully being so heavily invested there was no more cash to add recently.

The shares took a beating, a near 30% drop – I just kept hold as the holding wasn’t that meaningful. You can do your own research but you can’t eliminate stuff like this at times. I’ll likely sell what I have into any bounce and put the cash to work where I get more confident.

On same said Tuesday, Mpac (MPAC) put out a trading update and also warned.

This company frustrates me so much. It is like an errant child at times. I have known and held these on and off since they were Molins back at the turn of the millennium. So much promise, so much broker bluster. The good news was there is an agreement on the pension buy out:

This will be a big weight off the business but will take 2 years to finalise. There is also a distinct lack of meaningful director buying also I would say, which always makes me wonder why there.

I have traded these for the past few years because I lack the real conviction. In this instance I was lucky not to be long, but I’ve been caught out enough times in the past. That is two escapes but I was holding some MSI on Weds when they warned so not got away scott free this week.

There’s a good interview with Adam Holland CEO of Mpac here on VOX here:

Seems to be mainly the US where there is capital spend uncertainty due to Trump tariffs.

I dare say there will be a number of investors holding both the above shares today and licking their wounds. I’d say try to move on and wipe the pain out of your head, if you dwell on it, you will make poor decisions going forward like not buying a share or buying too few in a real winner which just compounds the loss. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and move on imo – the next trading day starts today, you are defined by how you get over the lows as much as how you celebrate the winners. It’s about the mind, it’s why England footballers choke when taking penalties, thinking of the weight of the past rather than what a future scoring would mean. Control your mind, don’t let it control you I would say.

Wednesday saw Greggs GRG post interim results:

You can read the rest where you read your RNS news. It is little surprise these have warned. They have higher energy prices, they have higher staff wages and higher NI contributions, all to take the top off of profits. Unlike many other retailers they won’t be benefitting from the fall in the $ as much as many and also the lower shipping prices.

I have researched Greggs far more than I should ever have done – “Steak Slices R Us”. I would say their products are great but the seem to have hit store saturation, there are 4 Greggs within a 3 mile radius of me. Peak Greggs seems to have been when Roger Whiteside left as CEO. Over the past year, eps forecasts have come down from 160p to 140p, now it looks like less than that for this year. A PE of 12 and earnings decline. They need a new growth driver. I think they are going to do more evening sales and drive thru’s to confront McDonalds head on but there are none of the vegan sausage roll ‘stars’ coming out of Greggs which did so much for profits and publicity in the past.

Is Roisin Currie up to the job? Don’t think she has Whiteside’s retail experience.

On Thursday, Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) put out their year end results.

You can read the full results where you read your RNS news.

They actually beat on eps but in among all of the news there were bits punters don’t like, such as uncertainty over tariffs. There was a £46m exceptional impairment, not that exceptional when there was a £26m exceptional last year.

It’s becoming a slog here, no sign of any great momentum. I had punted a few on the hope of a better than expected trading update with so much gloom priced in but yet again I managed to lose money here – what do they say? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the sign of insanity? I can’t argue with that 😊 I am definitely leaving them alone in future, he says, unconvincingly.

Rather more convincing on Thursday was Currys (CURY) which posted full year results. I won’t post the full news, you can read it where you read you RNS but here are the headlines:

I have been highlighting the bowl here for some time and holding from just over 80p before last Christmas. 50%+ in just over 6 months, it has been a good hold, even selling out ahead of the Trump tariff dip and buying back.

CEO Alex Buldock has done a great job here imo. When Seb James walked away to take the Boots job I really thought there wasn’t a person that could be CEO and turn this around. In fact it has taken longer to turn around under Alex than I would normally give any CEO the chance. But these were a massive debt-laden pile of mixed up retailers formed from Dixons, Currys and PC World, trading in the Nordics and Greece, in a very competitive sector being crucified by the internet, but he has pulled them through.

Baldock became CEO 7 years ago. He looked like he was on the right track then Covid hit. He seemed to be getting their again and we had Ukraine. He has still battled through, got cashflow strong and now reinstating the divi.

The bowl on the chart which I have relentlessly highlighted broke out to a 43 month high on Thursday.

Worth remembering the £ has appreciated 10% v the $ since the start of the year, that should be a great fillip to the margins as with many retailers, their purchase costs are tied to the $ and they should be hedging at much better rates going forward imo

All just my opinion of course, do your own research as always. I could be totally wrong and as I hold I am likely to be biased.

Next week’s stocks to watch for:

9^th GYM trading update

9^th JET2 Finals

11^th VID trading update

Carclo, CAR will be out this month too.

Bowls:

Auction Technology ATG

Vodafone, VOD

Likewise, LIKE

Saga, SAGA

Ashtead Technology, AT.

OnTheBeach, OTB

So that’s it for another week, ups and downs, but no tears from me - I am a big boy :-) have a good weekend

Twitter @rebelHQ

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