Nice one CR. Have you any thoughts on the impact for Card Factory of Clinton Cards woes? It's easy to say they'll benefit where they are both sited in the same town, though I fear for the survivors every time a retail business retreats from the high street. I'm wondering about what the geographic overlap is of the two businesses and whether CARD might be sniffing an opportunity with some Clinton sites.
I hold CARD and commented about them on another stack last evening. that I like to leave the price sticker on now when I send one, in so doing my business partner was able to appreciate just how little I value him on his 50th birthday! That's okay, £1.69 pleased me and he's a miserly bean counter. I imagine he will tippex out my greeting and send the card to his younger brother in a year or two. In hindsight I should have used a pencil.
I think value has a way to run in the current social and economic mindset. The effect of cheap food retailers marching into Sainsbury and Waitrose territory is breaking down the social stigma. Cards are very similar to food, you have to buy it but don't want to pay too much. Shoes, (I also hold SHOE) is a little different because what you put on your feet is important to health, but lots of people don't recognise that, or hard pressed families and older folk can't afford to. Anecdotally I pick up good vibes from Shoe Zone staff when i call in to top up my mother's array of slippers.
CARD sell over a third of all cards on the high street. As Clintons sell beggar all online it will be mainly high street stores that benefit from Clinton's demise imo. Each CARD store sells nearly £500k oer annum. I'd be surprised if clintons sold much more than 300k per store. So I reckon there's £54m card sales up for grabs in Clintons go. I'd expect CARD to get better than 30% of that seeing their dominance of the high street so could add an extra £15-£20m sales or 3-4% would be my best guess.
As for value, I like it as long as the seller keeps up decent margins. CARD have grerat margins that stand up to or better most retailers. I think what you have to remember is Darcy has gone through the entire business and upped the customer attention and satisfaction from store staff up to board. The stock software has been upgraded to state of the art, he has embraced click and collect and they are using a data driven approach to boosting footfall and sales. I find this refreshing in a new CEO doing the right thing for longer term. He has been aided by the strong cashflow too. 9 years heading up Costcutters (the clue is in the name) has taught him a lot imo, he was well respected and did a great job there. Brining in a big hitter like Mathias Seeger as CFO prepares them for international expansion imo and Roger Whiteside on board as non-exec is as good as you can get. They do say 'judge a man by the company he keeps! Thanks
"Regardless of what any agent tells you, house prices are 15-20% lower than 18 months ago.".......source??? Nationwide price Index over the last 12 months is -3.5% (June 2022 to June 2023) while Halifax Price Index is showing an even lower drop......https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports
I know these indexes give these figs but they just don't have a method of couting accurately when indexes turn at tops imo. For instance, when house markets top out many people just take their house off the market. If they put it on the market 1 year later at 20% less, that won't register as a house price fall, what registers is people cutting the prices or selling for less. In bull or up markets for houses, many people get offers over the asking price, you don't get many pulling out and putting the house on later. So there's a bigger fall from highs at the top than gets registered imo.
Also with new builds - builders often have to throw in a package to get a sale that the builder takes the hit on so they arer affectively cutting prices but you me and the Nationwide don't see that on the headline but you can see it in builders' margins.
All my opinion of course.
If anyone thinks houses are down just 3.5% in a year they have to be blinkerd imo
For what it's worth the aforementioned bean counter with the £1.69 birthday card reminded me everything else has gone up 10% but house prices have fallen by whatever you believe they have fallen by.
I'd add that new house asking prices have probably risen, but deal prices make them more attractive.
I'd also throw in that increased utility costs have made second hand houses, which mostly offer lesser thermal performance than new houses, weigh on the resale value, if not the actual resale price. Likewise, buy new, not much to do except cry over their lack of soul, buy an older house and you're likely to spend more sooner making it your own, and the cost of doing that has risen, especially where you need to get tradesmen in.
Nice one CR. Have you any thoughts on the impact for Card Factory of Clinton Cards woes? It's easy to say they'll benefit where they are both sited in the same town, though I fear for the survivors every time a retail business retreats from the high street. I'm wondering about what the geographic overlap is of the two businesses and whether CARD might be sniffing an opportunity with some Clinton sites.
I hold CARD and commented about them on another stack last evening. that I like to leave the price sticker on now when I send one, in so doing my business partner was able to appreciate just how little I value him on his 50th birthday! That's okay, £1.69 pleased me and he's a miserly bean counter. I imagine he will tippex out my greeting and send the card to his younger brother in a year or two. In hindsight I should have used a pencil.
I think value has a way to run in the current social and economic mindset. The effect of cheap food retailers marching into Sainsbury and Waitrose territory is breaking down the social stigma. Cards are very similar to food, you have to buy it but don't want to pay too much. Shoes, (I also hold SHOE) is a little different because what you put on your feet is important to health, but lots of people don't recognise that, or hard pressed families and older folk can't afford to. Anecdotally I pick up good vibes from Shoe Zone staff when i call in to top up my mother's array of slippers.
Keep up the good comm's, thanks for sharing.
TEIN
Thanks TEIN
CARD sell over a third of all cards on the high street. As Clintons sell beggar all online it will be mainly high street stores that benefit from Clinton's demise imo. Each CARD store sells nearly £500k oer annum. I'd be surprised if clintons sold much more than 300k per store. So I reckon there's £54m card sales up for grabs in Clintons go. I'd expect CARD to get better than 30% of that seeing their dominance of the high street so could add an extra £15-£20m sales or 3-4% would be my best guess.
As for value, I like it as long as the seller keeps up decent margins. CARD have grerat margins that stand up to or better most retailers. I think what you have to remember is Darcy has gone through the entire business and upped the customer attention and satisfaction from store staff up to board. The stock software has been upgraded to state of the art, he has embraced click and collect and they are using a data driven approach to boosting footfall and sales. I find this refreshing in a new CEO doing the right thing for longer term. He has been aided by the strong cashflow too. 9 years heading up Costcutters (the clue is in the name) has taught him a lot imo, he was well respected and did a great job there. Brining in a big hitter like Mathias Seeger as CFO prepares them for international expansion imo and Roger Whiteside on board as non-exec is as good as you can get. They do say 'judge a man by the company he keeps! Thanks
"Regardless of what any agent tells you, house prices are 15-20% lower than 18 months ago.".......source??? Nationwide price Index over the last 12 months is -3.5% (June 2022 to June 2023) while Halifax Price Index is showing an even lower drop......https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports
I know these indexes give these figs but they just don't have a method of couting accurately when indexes turn at tops imo. For instance, when house markets top out many people just take their house off the market. If they put it on the market 1 year later at 20% less, that won't register as a house price fall, what registers is people cutting the prices or selling for less. In bull or up markets for houses, many people get offers over the asking price, you don't get many pulling out and putting the house on later. So there's a bigger fall from highs at the top than gets registered imo.
Also with new builds - builders often have to throw in a package to get a sale that the builder takes the hit on so they arer affectively cutting prices but you me and the Nationwide don't see that on the headline but you can see it in builders' margins.
All my opinion of course.
If anyone thinks houses are down just 3.5% in a year they have to be blinkerd imo
For what it's worth the aforementioned bean counter with the £1.69 birthday card reminded me everything else has gone up 10% but house prices have fallen by whatever you believe they have fallen by.
I'd add that new house asking prices have probably risen, but deal prices make them more attractive.
I'd also throw in that increased utility costs have made second hand houses, which mostly offer lesser thermal performance than new houses, weigh on the resale value, if not the actual resale price. Likewise, buy new, not much to do except cry over their lack of soul, buy an older house and you're likely to spend more sooner making it your own, and the cost of doing that has risen, especially where you need to get tradesmen in.
TEIN