Agree the debt is an issue and still over the market cap, which is why the shares are so cheap imo. But watching the results webcast I gained confidence that it can be dealt with. The director buying since June, while no guarantee, increases my confidence. The fastest ever 8 bagger I have held was Thomas Cook who's debt was huge compared to the market cap but a bit a new CEO, a bit of director buying and the share price rallied. Then a few bits of good news meant the shares rallied more. Then the market cap compared to the debt looked far greater and a much smaller placing looked necessarily to bring them back to something healthy. As brokers saw this coming they hiked their targets, also boosting the share price to 8 bag the stock in 6 months. I'm not saying that will happen here, but there runes are saying it's a similar situation in my opinion. Won't 8 bag in 6 months but could very easily one bag in 12 months, especially is these customer inventories are starting to run down imo. As ever, just my worthless opinion.
I'm also tracking Synthomer. It has signs of a quality company (bits of it) so if they come through unscathed in 2025, the share price could fly.
What's putting me off atm? Covenant holiday given - temporary, and so lenders very much in control. Especially with the EUR520m loan notes maturing in mid-2025 that needs refinancing.
Company has stated they are targeting non-core disposals this year. If it doesn't happen, they will definitely face a credit crunch and I fear the equity is worth zero. So that's the key investing decision here - can they pull off a firesale at decent prices for parts of the company, that the lenders will agree to?
As you know I try to hold "1-bagger-365" stocks as much as possible and having risen 60% I have sold KIER, purely because I can't see it doubling in a year from here but can see many others that can. I still think KIE are cheap tho and fully expect them to do very well over 12 months.
Agree the debt is an issue and still over the market cap, which is why the shares are so cheap imo. But watching the results webcast I gained confidence that it can be dealt with. The director buying since June, while no guarantee, increases my confidence. The fastest ever 8 bagger I have held was Thomas Cook who's debt was huge compared to the market cap but a bit a new CEO, a bit of director buying and the share price rallied. Then a few bits of good news meant the shares rallied more. Then the market cap compared to the debt looked far greater and a much smaller placing looked necessarily to bring them back to something healthy. As brokers saw this coming they hiked their targets, also boosting the share price to 8 bag the stock in 6 months. I'm not saying that will happen here, but there runes are saying it's a similar situation in my opinion. Won't 8 bag in 6 months but could very easily one bag in 12 months, especially is these customer inventories are starting to run down imo. As ever, just my worthless opinion.
Loving the bullish commentary Cockney. Appreciate you making these updates public 👌🏻
Thank you
Cheers Rich
no problem
Many thanks and keep up the great commentary.
Cheers Andrew
I'm also tracking Synthomer. It has signs of a quality company (bits of it) so if they come through unscathed in 2025, the share price could fly.
What's putting me off atm? Covenant holiday given - temporary, and so lenders very much in control. Especially with the EUR520m loan notes maturing in mid-2025 that needs refinancing.
Company has stated they are targeting non-core disposals this year. If it doesn't happen, they will definitely face a credit crunch and I fear the equity is worth zero. So that's the key investing decision here - can they pull off a firesale at decent prices for parts of the company, that the lenders will agree to?
Many thanks for another great weekend read. Are you still in Kier?
Hi Stephen
As you know I try to hold "1-bagger-365" stocks as much as possible and having risen 60% I have sold KIER, purely because I can't see it doubling in a year from here but can see many others that can. I still think KIE are cheap tho and fully expect them to do very well over 12 months.
Thanks
Saw the interview with Paul Hill yesterday
Very interesting 👍
thank you Stephen