Yes, look at the Chairman's buys too, he nearly caught the bottom in Aug, bought bang on the bottom in November and then added last week, one month before the results, £150k worth in 3 trades - he had none before.
Perhaps they'll be upbeat on current trading after recent acquisitions.
Broker forecasts for AVON are for 39p eps this year and 59p next year. That's a PE of 23 for this year falling to 15 for next year. Seeing I think they could beat by some way then I think the likely PE's will prove to be lower than this imo
Hi Cockney, I enjoy your substack thankyou. However I am struggling with Avon to see the opportunity. I agree with much of the praise of the company but that doesn't necessarily make it a good investment. At circa £9 a share your estimate of 15p eps puts it on 60 times unless I am missing something? There is a lot of recovery in that price IMO.
Love these weekly updates CR thanks very much - KWS is interesting for sure, perhaps oversold on fear of impact of AI and the de-hyping of the post covid gaming bubble. A nice way of covering off the gaming sector without exposure to the risks that individual game studios have to deal with when releasing new games.
Hi CR, Many thanks once again for a clear and honest appraisal of how to invest and stay grounded. I am looking forward to JET2 trading update this week? Have you ever considered investment trusts in the PE sector given their large NAV discounts. I hold Oakley Capital OCI for long term record and Chrysalis CHRY for a rerate. Given the lack of IPO's and how many companies are being bought up or disappearing from the stock market some of the best new companies appear here and when interest rates decrease then they have a bigger war chest to deploy IMO. Love the art.
JET2 look cheap like so many stocks at the moment but I'm sure a bit of sector activity and M&A will start livening them up.
I don't normally do Investment trusts but agree that the combination of falling interest rates, PE expansion and a move from discount to NAV to premium to NAV will have magnified effects on the moves in the sector. I do hold LIO which has dir buying and a big bowl on the chart and has fallen dramatically like so many. I know several investors that like OCI. I may be tempted into more when this market starts to pick up..
Have i misunderstood this Cockney? - With £40m pbt this year giving 10p eps forecasts, adding £21m to it should mean 15p eps+ going forward, excluding organic growth imo, Forecasts only showing 13p at the moment so I think there is more upside than expected
I think wherever you are getting your data from is incorrect. I think you have the earnings after the adjustments for write downs after the disposal of the armor business. The adjusted eps in US sents this year was 60c (around 47p). It's fair to strip those out and look at the 47p as the 'realistic' earnings for the past year as they won't have those one off costs going forward imo. Here are the current forecasts:
49.1c eps for 2024, 74.6c eps for 2025. When converted to Stirling that's 39p and 59p. It means the 2025 PE ratio is circa 15. With recoveries and boards that know to under-promise and over deliver, then I suspect 2025 eps will be somewhat higher, but you need to have a good deal of faith in the board. The board seem very good so I am happy to have that faith.
Thanks Cockney. Just me being an eejit. I reread your substack and first time I read the cmcx eps and as AVON was written above thought crikey I must be missing something.........well I was! Doh!!
CR, thanks for the great read yet again, some great takeaways. I'm glad you're upbeat with MKS, which has pulled back further than I expected, [I hold].
Anyway, on to your blood pressure, I've long been a fan of standing desks but have recently reconfigured to add a treadmill, so now a walking desk. It's easy to read and type, even to drink tea, but doesn't do anything for my already poor handwriting which I previously thought couldn't get any worse! However it does do wonders for my daily steps, and therefore for my blood pressure readings, and I focus better whilst working, and feel better afterwards, afterall who wants to sit at a computer all day? Have a good week ahead, TEIN.
Thank you TEIN sounds interesting. Would be a bit challenging for me as I'm in a wheelchair! My blood pressure is ok actually, it's just elevated at the end of the day. It reduces after I've ended work. Getting away from a computer is always a good thing tho
Love the painting of Paul
Cheers Chris
As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Thanks
Sorry - Keyword Studios KWS
Yes, look at the Chairman's buys too, he nearly caught the bottom in Aug, bought bang on the bottom in November and then added last week, one month before the results, £150k worth in 3 trades - he had none before.
Perhaps they'll be upbeat on current trading after recent acquisitions.
Easy done, not a problem :-)
Broker forecasts for AVON are for 39p eps this year and 59p next year. That's a PE of 23 for this year falling to 15 for next year. Seeing I think they could beat by some way then I think the likely PE's will prove to be lower than this imo
Sorry Guy but where did I say 15p eps for this year?
Hi Cockney, I enjoy your substack thankyou. However I am struggling with Avon to see the opportunity. I agree with much of the praise of the company but that doesn't necessarily make it a good investment. At circa £9 a share your estimate of 15p eps puts it on 60 times unless I am missing something? There is a lot of recovery in that price IMO.
I’m getting confused CR - which company’s chairman do these trades relate to please ?
Love these weekly updates CR thanks very much - KWS is interesting for sure, perhaps oversold on fear of impact of AI and the de-hyping of the post covid gaming bubble. A nice way of covering off the gaming sector without exposure to the risks that individual game studios have to deal with when releasing new games.
Hi CR, Many thanks once again for a clear and honest appraisal of how to invest and stay grounded. I am looking forward to JET2 trading update this week? Have you ever considered investment trusts in the PE sector given their large NAV discounts. I hold Oakley Capital OCI for long term record and Chrysalis CHRY for a rerate. Given the lack of IPO's and how many companies are being bought up or disappearing from the stock market some of the best new companies appear here and when interest rates decrease then they have a bigger war chest to deploy IMO. Love the art.
Hi Andrew
JET2 look cheap like so many stocks at the moment but I'm sure a bit of sector activity and M&A will start livening them up.
I don't normally do Investment trusts but agree that the combination of falling interest rates, PE expansion and a move from discount to NAV to premium to NAV will have magnified effects on the moves in the sector. I do hold LIO which has dir buying and a big bowl on the chart and has fallen dramatically like so many. I know several investors that like OCI. I may be tempted into more when this market starts to pick up..
Richard
Ah Cockney, apologies I see what I did there!! I have picked up the CMCX commentary. Doh!!
Have i misunderstood this Cockney? - With £40m pbt this year giving 10p eps forecasts, adding £21m to it should mean 15p eps+ going forward, excluding organic growth imo, Forecasts only showing 13p at the moment so I think there is more upside than expected
Hi Guy
I think wherever you are getting your data from is incorrect. I think you have the earnings after the adjustments for write downs after the disposal of the armor business. The adjusted eps in US sents this year was 60c (around 47p). It's fair to strip those out and look at the 47p as the 'realistic' earnings for the past year as they won't have those one off costs going forward imo. Here are the current forecasts:
49.1c eps for 2024, 74.6c eps for 2025. When converted to Stirling that's 39p and 59p. It means the 2025 PE ratio is circa 15. With recoveries and boards that know to under-promise and over deliver, then I suspect 2025 eps will be somewhat higher, but you need to have a good deal of faith in the board. The board seem very good so I am happy to have that faith.
I hope that helps
Thanks Cockney. Just me being an eejit. I reread your substack and first time I read the cmcx eps and as AVON was written above thought crikey I must be missing something.........well I was! Doh!!
CR, thanks for the great read yet again, some great takeaways. I'm glad you're upbeat with MKS, which has pulled back further than I expected, [I hold].
Anyway, on to your blood pressure, I've long been a fan of standing desks but have recently reconfigured to add a treadmill, so now a walking desk. It's easy to read and type, even to drink tea, but doesn't do anything for my already poor handwriting which I previously thought couldn't get any worse! However it does do wonders for my daily steps, and therefore for my blood pressure readings, and I focus better whilst working, and feel better afterwards, afterall who wants to sit at a computer all day? Have a good week ahead, TEIN.
Thank you TEIN sounds interesting. Would be a bit challenging for me as I'm in a wheelchair! My blood pressure is ok actually, it's just elevated at the end of the day. It reduces after I've ended work. Getting away from a computer is always a good thing tho
Cheers
I'm so sorry CR, I didn't know that. I hope no offence is taken and others may find the idea of interest.
No problem, definitely no offence taken whatsoever