I will be on stage with Andy Brough for a 'fireside chat'at Mello, Chiswick, Thursday lunchtime. If any Substack subscribers want to go you can have a special last minute offer, £20 tickets for the Thursday. The discount code is MLTWENTY.
The Clayton Hotel & Conference Centre, 626 Chiswick High Road, London, W4 5RY
MKS app deal was giving 20% off nearly all ouside brands on Black Friday, a genuine deal, but I suspect all the compaines they put through their Black Friday deal are taking the margin hit - it's be in it or miss huge sales that your competitors will take. They were love bombing app users with offers tho.
CARD, thaat's interesting, thanks and thanks for the kind words.
CR, thanks for sharing wonderful insights. I would love to hear you talk about your process of managing trades. That is managing risk, selling at loss, holding, taking profits etc. A video with VOXX or a blog perhaps?
Thank you, if only there were 50 hours in a day! Perhaps I'll try to do something on Voxx when Paul Hill chats with me again. As far as selling at a loss goes, it never bothers me at all, it's an occupational risk and one stock sold at a loss is only part of the portfolio, I concentrate on making money from the portfolio as a whole, the ups and downs within it are just offsetting each other to the upside hopefully, if I'm getting it right.
Yes, I am not concerned by the lack of t/s and the Matthius thing makes sense.
I think some have been spooked by the minimum wage rises which was out of the blue, but hard to quantify as the staff have different pay levels, some are part time etc. They should hav ebeen so far ahead with trading that even with that they ought to beat or at least be in-line imo.
I don't think there is anything to worry about regarding the lack of a TU at Card Factory. There was a TU in August just after the H1 period ended and we hadn't had one of those in previous years (2022 Jan & Nov). I just think it's a case of Matthias coming in and implementing the TU's just after results so we will probably have to wait till Jan. This is 15% of my PA (I'm not quite as brave as you!) so I'm obviously viewing this with rose tinted specs, but I think that makes sense.
Thanks for another insightful review. I just found myself smiling when I read how when you do more research you add to a position of what you find is good. I’m still trying to find my style of investing , so the reason I smiled was that this is what I also find myself doing, though not adding to the position yet. I find I need to keep reminding and reaffirming why I’m in a share, so I can relax and not react emotionally on volatility. I think we share similar thoughts there. How do you counter the risk of too much confirmation bias? That’s always something I think I have a problem with. Thanks again Richard for helping me stay sane in this relatively new world of investing 👍🏼
Confirmation bias is a big issue, it is so easy to look for news and be more inclined to ignore negatives and be boosted by positives. I try to remember I will always be wrong a certain amount of time. If I find negative news I dig deeper. If I find positive news I try to stay grounded. It isn't easy. I try to go in heavier early on new stocks I am convinced by rather than dally about and add a fair way higher, that way it leaves me with more gain in the stock if I'm initially right then something goes wrong - selling then means I might only give back an amount that doesn't put me in a losing position. It isn't easy tho!
Thanks , that’s a really useful insight. I guess in time when I become more confident with my research I’ll try this. I can see the sense in maximising gains like this. Also see the sense in turnarounds as often you get near a bottom and generally, there is mostly up from there, and like you say, if it goes wrong theb you havnt lost much, but often have lots to gain. It’s just spotting them and looking for the signs as you do. Yes, I agree, it’s hard to always keep the bigger picture in mind with bias. A bit of luck always helps as well though!
I really appreciate your passing on knowledge and experience like this. There's no other weekly commentary to match it in my view.
MKS: mgmt hypocrisy or Black Friday pressure? At the CMD one highlight was margin improvement through higher rates of full price sales achieved via a variety of methods. The CEO was keen to point out that the App is too promotional and they need to deal with that, and that they're getting away from blanket discounts. I don't know what anyone else thinks but Black Friday seems especially aggressive this year, my inbox is overloaded with deals from everyone for everything. M&S have steered clear but look in the App this weekend and it's more promotional than ever with selective and blanket discounts all over the shop. Just click on 'All Offers'. I know M&S have taken on some Debenhams stores but they didn't have to take on their marketing style as well.
CARD. I was reading half year results for Paypoint (PAY) this week. They've previously bought the voucher business Love2Shop and have it in turnaround. There's a line in the results RNS that says they're in the process of doing a deal with Card Factory to offer cards with vouchers. CARD already sell a very poor small selection of gift vouchers for other retailers, a bit of an afterthought really. Love2Shop is a multi-retailer offer so the recipient can spend it in loads of places. The manager in my local Card Factory tells me they do get asked for Love2Shop vouchers, its an obvious add on to a greeting card just like a book of stamps in my opinion. If PAY have announced a deal not yet done then it's a cock up or very nearly done, and I wonder if it could be a two way tie up, cards to PAY and vouchers to CARD?
I will be on stage with Andy Brough for a 'fireside chat'at Mello, Chiswick, Thursday lunchtime. If any Substack subscribers want to go you can have a special last minute offer, £20 tickets for the Thursday. The discount code is MLTWENTY.
The Clayton Hotel & Conference Centre, 626 Chiswick High Road, London, W4 5RY
MKS app deal was giving 20% off nearly all ouside brands on Black Friday, a genuine deal, but I suspect all the compaines they put through their Black Friday deal are taking the margin hit - it's be in it or miss huge sales that your competitors will take. They were love bombing app users with offers tho.
CARD, thaat's interesting, thanks and thanks for the kind words.
CR, thanks for sharing wonderful insights. I would love to hear you talk about your process of managing trades. That is managing risk, selling at loss, holding, taking profits etc. A video with VOXX or a blog perhaps?
Thank you, if only there were 50 hours in a day! Perhaps I'll try to do something on Voxx when Paul Hill chats with me again. As far as selling at a loss goes, it never bothers me at all, it's an occupational risk and one stock sold at a loss is only part of the portfolio, I concentrate on making money from the portfolio as a whole, the ups and downs within it are just offsetting each other to the upside hopefully, if I'm getting it right.
Yes, I am not concerned by the lack of t/s and the Matthius thing makes sense.
I think some have been spooked by the minimum wage rises which was out of the blue, but hard to quantify as the staff have different pay levels, some are part time etc. They should hav ebeen so far ahead with trading that even with that they ought to beat or at least be in-line imo.
Thank you.
I don't think there is anything to worry about regarding the lack of a TU at Card Factory. There was a TU in August just after the H1 period ended and we hadn't had one of those in previous years (2022 Jan & Nov). I just think it's a case of Matthias coming in and implementing the TU's just after results so we will probably have to wait till Jan. This is 15% of my PA (I'm not quite as brave as you!) so I'm obviously viewing this with rose tinted specs, but I think that makes sense.
Thanks for another insightful review. I just found myself smiling when I read how when you do more research you add to a position of what you find is good. I’m still trying to find my style of investing , so the reason I smiled was that this is what I also find myself doing, though not adding to the position yet. I find I need to keep reminding and reaffirming why I’m in a share, so I can relax and not react emotionally on volatility. I think we share similar thoughts there. How do you counter the risk of too much confirmation bias? That’s always something I think I have a problem with. Thanks again Richard for helping me stay sane in this relatively new world of investing 👍🏼
Confirmation bias is a big issue, it is so easy to look for news and be more inclined to ignore negatives and be boosted by positives. I try to remember I will always be wrong a certain amount of time. If I find negative news I dig deeper. If I find positive news I try to stay grounded. It isn't easy. I try to go in heavier early on new stocks I am convinced by rather than dally about and add a fair way higher, that way it leaves me with more gain in the stock if I'm initially right then something goes wrong - selling then means I might only give back an amount that doesn't put me in a losing position. It isn't easy tho!
Thanks , that’s a really useful insight. I guess in time when I become more confident with my research I’ll try this. I can see the sense in maximising gains like this. Also see the sense in turnarounds as often you get near a bottom and generally, there is mostly up from there, and like you say, if it goes wrong theb you havnt lost much, but often have lots to gain. It’s just spotting them and looking for the signs as you do. Yes, I agree, it’s hard to always keep the bigger picture in mind with bias. A bit of luck always helps as well though!
I really appreciate your passing on knowledge and experience like this. There's no other weekly commentary to match it in my view.
MKS: mgmt hypocrisy or Black Friday pressure? At the CMD one highlight was margin improvement through higher rates of full price sales achieved via a variety of methods. The CEO was keen to point out that the App is too promotional and they need to deal with that, and that they're getting away from blanket discounts. I don't know what anyone else thinks but Black Friday seems especially aggressive this year, my inbox is overloaded with deals from everyone for everything. M&S have steered clear but look in the App this weekend and it's more promotional than ever with selective and blanket discounts all over the shop. Just click on 'All Offers'. I know M&S have taken on some Debenhams stores but they didn't have to take on their marketing style as well.
CARD. I was reading half year results for Paypoint (PAY) this week. They've previously bought the voucher business Love2Shop and have it in turnaround. There's a line in the results RNS that says they're in the process of doing a deal with Card Factory to offer cards with vouchers. CARD already sell a very poor small selection of gift vouchers for other retailers, a bit of an afterthought really. Love2Shop is a multi-retailer offer so the recipient can spend it in loads of places. The manager in my local Card Factory tells me they do get asked for Love2Shop vouchers, its an obvious add on to a greeting card just like a book of stamps in my opinion. If PAY have announced a deal not yet done then it's a cock up or very nearly done, and I wonder if it could be a two way tie up, cards to PAY and vouchers to CARD?
[I hold MKS, CARD, PAY]