There's a load of dodgy messages overnight from "Cockne Rebe" or similar, they re not from me - there is only one genuine Cockney Rebel these days after Steve Harley sadly passed away!
No tariffs on UK steel and aluminium which will assist the steel sector and associated industries. The deal also secures the pharmaceutical supply chain. Digital Serice Tax remains unaltered while ana agreement to work on a digital trade deal. Also still a restriction on hormone treated beef entering the UK market. Some plus parts to the deal
Yes, I wouldn't argue that there were no plusses for UK but when you tot up the total gains for the US and total for UK, we are nearly flat, the US is up big so we are definitely losers in the deal
I think lots of UK companies have long standing relationships with the US and many these prefer long-standing and trusted relationships. Having a trade agreement takes away uncertainty. US is a huge market which UK companies can benefit from, that's not to so we consumers need to buy British when it's come to farm produce
Indian Pakistan cease fire and Putin calling for direct Ukraine peace talks this week. Also looks like Trump has several more trade deal up his sleeve, with direct China 'break the ice' negotiations. Could well be a MEGA week or two for the markets...
Cheers another insightful read. What do you think about Coates, US Tariffs and the Indian deal removing tariffs from import of Indian textiles I am led to believe.
Thanks Richard. Your enthusiasm for the potential rise in small-caps is infectious given the direction of interest rates. Look forward to hopefully hearing of your upbeat reports in due course.
The UK market seems past the point of maximum pessimism but do you think a double top in US market and will then see more uncertainty come back? People are talking more bearish than the data currently shows or am i looking at the wrong data!? Some of my small caps have started to come back in a big way Ramsdens, Cerrilion, Kainos. Part of me feels to sell and sit on side-lines while other side is saying be brave! Ramsdens and H&T are easy ones to sit on while gold price high. They hardly moved in the sell off.
The market seems bearish but I think individual stock are doing way better than the market expects. You have to be a stock picker obviously but there is no end of cheap shares. If I'd held trough the small cap gloom I don't think I'd sell here, it feels bottomy to me and the start of a new leg up I think/hope.
Thank you for your thoughts on Kitwave, no guarantees in investing, but the company looks a reasonable buy at present, along with a number of UK small caps. Sentiment towards small caps appears to have improved markedly over the last month; hopefully this will be maintained.
Now is not the time to sell I would suggest, despite the old adage about the month of May. I have added a few Eurocell so will be looking out for the update and any commentary regarding house building, which touchwood is starting to improve from a low base.
I have a large position in Van Elle, bought sometime ago at around 38p, which has started to tick up despite the subdued trading update in mid March. I note that Peter Gyllenhammer has recently increased his holding to 7%. Richard Staveley at Rockwood has also increased his holding to around 9%. The shares trade below book and the balance sheet is in decent shape. It should be an early beneficiary of an improvement in house building and last weeks announcement regarding the outsourcing of its HGV transport fleet looks sensible business. There has also been recent director buying and it pays a reasonable dividend
I suppose the muted response to the #CARD announcement results from the drop of some 45p from the high of 140p on the last set of satisfactory figures. I know I am still chaffing (probably like others) and have not revisited since.
...i thought lower margins into single digits was a big reason. CARD is a share i hadn't looked at until read your previous posts. It looks like has been a good trade for the past 3 years but hasn't really broken out.
Sent this way from The OB. Really enjoy your in-depth analysis! Have a great weekend.
There's a load of dodgy messages overnight from "Cockne Rebe" or similar, they re not from me - there is only one genuine Cockney Rebel these days after Steve Harley sadly passed away!
Nice one RIch, looking forward to OTB and ECEL.
Cheers Jon
No tariffs on UK steel and aluminium which will assist the steel sector and associated industries. The deal also secures the pharmaceutical supply chain. Digital Serice Tax remains unaltered while ana agreement to work on a digital trade deal. Also still a restriction on hormone treated beef entering the UK market. Some plus parts to the deal
Yes, I wouldn't argue that there were no plusses for UK but when you tot up the total gains for the US and total for UK, we are nearly flat, the US is up big so we are definitely losers in the deal
I think lots of UK companies have long standing relationships with the US and many these prefer long-standing and trusted relationships. Having a trade agreement takes away uncertainty. US is a huge market which UK companies can benefit from, that's not to so we consumers need to buy British when it's come to farm produce
Thanks John, still a lot to wash out from the deal yet, I think there will be some unexpected consequences that will show up over coming weeks too.
ULTP 👀
Thanks again Rebel - much appreciated dedication.
I’m trying to discipline myself to buy into momentum and sell on early rolling tops. All in all been a good couple of weeks though 👍
Do you have any BOOM or OTB?
Thanks, just a small few BOOM till I see the chart turn up.
I hold OTB but tempted to sell before the results in case there's some profit taking on the high. I have yet to decide or be brave :-)
Likewise re OTB on whether to sell ahead
The last joy was very positive on early summer bookings but has the recent bounce now factored all that in?
Maybe sell half ahead of the 13th?
might be a good plan, only Monday to do it though remember.
👍
Is this a scam account. Usually it's Cockney, not Cockne.
Some scam account, delete them all imo.
Hi, I have tried to watch the presentation from Card Factory but I am being asked for a passcode. Do you have a pass code?
you need to register first, here
https://storm-virtual-uk.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_nI3zL19uTtW3Nqpa1SupeA#/registration
I have registered but I am still being asked for a passcode. Am I missing something?
something has changed:
Teneo +44 (0) 207 353 4200
Jo Blackshaw / Anthony Di Natale cardfactory@teneo.com
Call or email these tomorrow and they will sort it for you
All he best
Thanks. I will give them a call tomorrow.
Indian Pakistan cease fire and Putin calling for direct Ukraine peace talks this week. Also looks like Trump has several more trade deal up his sleeve, with direct China 'break the ice' negotiations. Could well be a MEGA week or two for the markets...
Let's see, you rarely get what you expect, but hope so.
Typos don’t where joy came from!
The last update
Cheers another insightful read. What do you think about Coates, US Tariffs and the Indian deal removing tariffs from import of Indian textiles I am led to believe.
If I am honest I haven't thought about it but it sounds beneficial. I will put them on my watchlist and try to have a look at them, ta.
Thanks Richard. Your enthusiasm for the potential rise in small-caps is infectious given the direction of interest rates. Look forward to hopefully hearing of your upbeat reports in due course.
Thanks, I have patiently waited for this bounce in the small caps, it feels like the real deal imo.
The UK market seems past the point of maximum pessimism but do you think a double top in US market and will then see more uncertainty come back? People are talking more bearish than the data currently shows or am i looking at the wrong data!? Some of my small caps have started to come back in a big way Ramsdens, Cerrilion, Kainos. Part of me feels to sell and sit on side-lines while other side is saying be brave! Ramsdens and H&T are easy ones to sit on while gold price high. They hardly moved in the sell off.
The market seems bearish but I think individual stock are doing way better than the market expects. You have to be a stock picker obviously but there is no end of cheap shares. If I'd held trough the small cap gloom I don't think I'd sell here, it feels bottomy to me and the start of a new leg up I think/hope.
Thanks again Richard, very useful thoughts and certainly helping me to develop my game 👍🏻
A pleasure.
Thanks for another weekend update CR,a must-read part of my weekend. Even better when sitting in the garden with sunshine & beer 😎
Where do you access the fear/greed indicator please?
Let’s hope for another positive week.
Thanks Agger
Fear/Greed, just google "Fear/Greed" and it will be the first page shown
Thank you 🙏🏻
Morning Richard
Thank you for your thoughts on Kitwave, no guarantees in investing, but the company looks a reasonable buy at present, along with a number of UK small caps. Sentiment towards small caps appears to have improved markedly over the last month; hopefully this will be maintained.
Now is not the time to sell I would suggest, despite the old adage about the month of May. I have added a few Eurocell so will be looking out for the update and any commentary regarding house building, which touchwood is starting to improve from a low base.
I have a large position in Van Elle, bought sometime ago at around 38p, which has started to tick up despite the subdued trading update in mid March. I note that Peter Gyllenhammer has recently increased his holding to 7%. Richard Staveley at Rockwood has also increased his holding to around 9%. The shares trade below book and the balance sheet is in decent shape. It should be an early beneficiary of an improvement in house building and last weeks announcement regarding the outsourcing of its HGV transport fleet looks sensible business. There has also been recent director buying and it pays a reasonable dividend
Just my thoughts and I could be wrong.
All the best.
I will look at VANL John, never looked at it before, thanks.
I think the name put me off - strange how certain company names can turn you off.
Small caps definitely getting more interest imo.
All the best.
What's a sensible target CR if CHH breaks 600p? Chart has a long way up to go
Very much depends on energy prices and whether we get flooded with cheap pottery from China after the tariffs imo.
Need for for news.
UK and eu has anti dumping on China ceramics and has for years so not gonna get flooded ;)
got any good source ways to track energy prices? Oil through the floor
Yes,I'm not sure that is the biggest issue, just energy prices unless the gov help the sector out.
I suppose the muted response to the #CARD announcement results from the drop of some 45p from the high of 140p on the last set of satisfactory figures. I know I am still chaffing (probably like others) and have not revisited since.
yep, something will change investor sentiment soon, perhaps the love returning for small caps
...i thought lower margins into single digits was a big reason. CARD is a share i hadn't looked at until read your previous posts. It looks like has been a good trade for the past 3 years but hasn't really broken out.
Sent this way from The OB. Really enjoy your in-depth analysis! Have a great weekend.