Possibly. the FTSE250, SMX and Aim all seem to be firming despite Friday's action though, imo. There's a lot of businesses becoming very under valued the longer this market stays this weak, we will see lots more acquisitions if so and that will increase the interest.
I think businesses need to beat and even then when FTC smashed it they went down. I think it's a sign of capitulation, punters giving up but invariably we are at or near a bottom when that happens imo.
Yes, easy to think like that but you have to dust yourself off and come back fighting.
W7L was on a fairly rich rating but they had consistently beaten with earnings growing at very high double digits, despite what forecasts may have suggested. I think with them only meeting forecasts there was a reappraisal. On a PE 0f 24, if they were not going to beat forecasts , the growth going forward was just 15%, that really doesn't look cheap then. So punters then reassess what should you be paying for 15% growth and the price looked rich imo.
The acquisition of B.A. may add a lot to earnings but investors will want to see it before buying now imo,
I never really saw them coming off this much but when I look at the PE and the growth if they are not going to beat, I can see why punters sold so heavily.
Sorry it was such a big hit, there but for the grace of god go I.
I'm sorry but I am just not your guy with banking and financials as I never understand how they make their money these days. In the 70s-80s banking was pretty simple, now it's all leverage, derivatives etc and the effects of interest rates on various instruments etc. I don't think I have held a bank for more than 2 days sice the banking crisis, and only 2, LLOY and Metro Bank.
As I said, I find it best to invest in what I understand and try to stick to that, aside from the odd bit that's out of my field but with a fairly easy to understand model.
Sorry not to be more help. I would say that's a nice little bowl on the recent STB chart so likely worth watching close.
All good and interesting stuff as usual Cockney. Many thanks.
The W7L situation had me reeling and seriously beginning to wonder if this share investing malarky is really for me. I have no problem taking responsibility and accepting my mistakes ( which I take as learning opportunities) when I can understand the logic, but when logic goes out of the window you wonder if a guaranteed 5% interest on your money might be a better bet !,😂
We all know that feeling! Best try and learn lessons such that winners surpass losers in profit and to spread the investment portfolio so that even a 100% loss on one share only loses 5%.
So I’m guessing you recommend having at least 20 in your portfolio ? That sounds very sensible - I’m only at 12. The irony is that W7L were one of my recent adds to try to expand that number !!
There's a small recent one but not enough to rely on. You really want to see larger bowls over a couple of months to have a bit of faith in them imo. the more perfect the curve the better.
Mr Rebel, one thing I appreciate aside of the macro and company commentary, which of course is the bread and butter of lots of other commentators as well, is that you share your investing/ practical experience built up over years and decades, thanks for the commentary AND the insights.
Thanks Rebel. Interesting similarity between the FTSE 250 and Small Cap indexes. The volumes still seem low in general so perhaps we will see a bull investment run at some point. Perhaps if and when Reeves is moved aside. The reaction to the Warpaint figures seems exrtreme but it may be brokers picking up shares on the cheap. Wouldn't be surprised on a sharp upturn on the share in a few months. Thanks as always Richard. Always a great read.
Your posts are incredible and your investing philosophies are very similar to mine.
For example, I hold CARD, JD Sports, Brickability, Eurocell etc. I also got my fingers slightly burnt by IGR, but I followed my intuition and sold most of my holding before the hellish RNS, so mostly dodged a bullet (small graze).
I won’t bore you with the details, but I held CBG prior to the ‘fiduciary duty’ story which slapped the industry. Adjusted earnings forecasts for Close Brothers have tanked since I opened a position, so this added fuel to the fire. I averaged down aggressively at around £2 though, and exited on this recent rally for a small loss.
Anyway, the reason I’m writing: Secure Trust Bank…. I’ve been trying to get an idea of how much the DCA compensation claims will likely cost them.
I’m confident that the fiduciary duty ruling will be thrown out, but with CBG’s forecasts falling like they have, I’d rather back another horse; one which could increase 200%-300%, as opposed to one which I could rise, say 80%-100%.
Note: STB’s adjusted earnings are much higher than their reported numbers, and analysts are forecasting for earnings to soar next year to £46.8m (vs a forecast of £27.8m this year); a reasonable outcome from the Supreme Court and a ‘in line with market expectations’ at the interims could see it multibag in short order imo.
The market cap is currently £87m…. Yes, a forward p/e of less than 2.
It trades at 0.25 X Tan B/V, according to Stockopedia.
In my opinion, it’s simply far too cheap… but I like to have a decent grasp on downside. Any thoughts or suggestions please on how I can learn more about this please?
It's a pleasure. It doesn't cost a penny to share a bit of experience.
W7L will likely have a big bounce at some point, it ' is just about when.
Robins singing before it gets light, Blue Tits checking out the nest boxes and Blackbirds starting to build nests.
Possibly. the FTSE250, SMX and Aim all seem to be firming despite Friday's action though, imo. There's a lot of businesses becoming very under valued the longer this market stays this weak, we will see lots more acquisitions if so and that will increase the interest.
I think businesses need to beat and even then when FTC smashed it they went down. I think it's a sign of capitulation, punters giving up but invariably we are at or near a bottom when that happens imo.
Yes, easy to think like that but you have to dust yourself off and come back fighting.
W7L was on a fairly rich rating but they had consistently beaten with earnings growing at very high double digits, despite what forecasts may have suggested. I think with them only meeting forecasts there was a reappraisal. On a PE 0f 24, if they were not going to beat forecasts , the growth going forward was just 15%, that really doesn't look cheap then. So punters then reassess what should you be paying for 15% growth and the price looked rich imo.
The acquisition of B.A. may add a lot to earnings but investors will want to see it before buying now imo,
I never really saw them coming off this much but when I look at the PE and the growth if they are not going to beat, I can see why punters sold so heavily.
Sorry it was such a big hit, there but for the grace of god go I.
Hi Jordan
I'm sorry but I am just not your guy with banking and financials as I never understand how they make their money these days. In the 70s-80s banking was pretty simple, now it's all leverage, derivatives etc and the effects of interest rates on various instruments etc. I don't think I have held a bank for more than 2 days sice the banking crisis, and only 2, LLOY and Metro Bank.
As I said, I find it best to invest in what I understand and try to stick to that, aside from the odd bit that's out of my field but with a fairly easy to understand model.
Sorry not to be more help. I would say that's a nice little bowl on the recent STB chart so likely worth watching close.
All the best
Richard
I believe it was in the Sunday Times article
All good and interesting stuff as usual Cockney. Many thanks.
The W7L situation had me reeling and seriously beginning to wonder if this share investing malarky is really for me. I have no problem taking responsibility and accepting my mistakes ( which I take as learning opportunities) when I can understand the logic, but when logic goes out of the window you wonder if a guaranteed 5% interest on your money might be a better bet !,😂
We all know that feeling! Best try and learn lessons such that winners surpass losers in profit and to spread the investment portfolio so that even a 100% loss on one share only loses 5%.
Very good advice thanks JAS
So I’m guessing you recommend having at least 20 in your portfolio ? That sounds very sensible - I’m only at 12. The irony is that W7L were one of my recent adds to try to expand that number !!
Will dust myself off tomorrow and go again !
I have just 10 shares which is all I can sensibly monitor or worry about. The rest is in a tracker.
will take a look
Agree, 50% of investing is about psychology
There's a small recent one but not enough to rely on. You really want to see larger bowls over a couple of months to have a bit of faith in them imo. the more perfect the curve the better.
Mr Rebel, one thing I appreciate aside of the macro and company commentary, which of course is the bread and butter of lots of other commentators as well, is that you share your investing/ practical experience built up over years and decades, thanks for the commentary AND the insights.
You too, thank you.
Thanks Rebel. Interesting similarity between the FTSE 250 and Small Cap indexes. The volumes still seem low in general so perhaps we will see a bull investment run at some point. Perhaps if and when Reeves is moved aside. The reaction to the Warpaint figures seems exrtreme but it may be brokers picking up shares on the cheap. Wouldn't be surprised on a sharp upturn on the share in a few months. Thanks as always Richard. Always a great read.
Mr Rebel,
Your posts are incredible and your investing philosophies are very similar to mine.
For example, I hold CARD, JD Sports, Brickability, Eurocell etc. I also got my fingers slightly burnt by IGR, but I followed my intuition and sold most of my holding before the hellish RNS, so mostly dodged a bullet (small graze).
I won’t bore you with the details, but I held CBG prior to the ‘fiduciary duty’ story which slapped the industry. Adjusted earnings forecasts for Close Brothers have tanked since I opened a position, so this added fuel to the fire. I averaged down aggressively at around £2 though, and exited on this recent rally for a small loss.
Anyway, the reason I’m writing: Secure Trust Bank…. I’ve been trying to get an idea of how much the DCA compensation claims will likely cost them.
I’m confident that the fiduciary duty ruling will be thrown out, but with CBG’s forecasts falling like they have, I’d rather back another horse; one which could increase 200%-300%, as opposed to one which I could rise, say 80%-100%.
Note: STB’s adjusted earnings are much higher than their reported numbers, and analysts are forecasting for earnings to soar next year to £46.8m (vs a forecast of £27.8m this year); a reasonable outcome from the Supreme Court and a ‘in line with market expectations’ at the interims could see it multibag in short order imo.
The market cap is currently £87m…. Yes, a forward p/e of less than 2.
It trades at 0.25 X Tan B/V, according to Stockopedia.
In my opinion, it’s simply far too cheap… but I like to have a decent grasp on downside. Any thoughts or suggestions please on how I can learn more about this please?