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You made this assertion before - CARD are up 100% over 1 year. SHOE is up 15% and paid around 12p in divis over 1 year, MKS is up 100% over 1 year, RR. is up 150% over 1 year. It is a stock pickers market

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Cockney Rebel

Loved that poem.

I’ve only ever heard the end bit. It’s pretty

Much on the money and worth aspiring to. Thanksa for your weekly newsletter and opinions. I’m pretty new to investing . Started in the pandemic. I still have most of my 40 k starting stake , but it’s been a hell of a ride. Overtraded, thought I knew stuff, then didn’t , boggy high, sold low, panicked a lot and worried all the time. Now I have a portfolio that’s 20 shares and I do my research so I can sleep at night. Your posts help give me the hope the stay invested. I really appreciate that. Thanks!

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Quite possibly - last October was the bottom and that had the big capitulation so perhaps can't expect a VIX pike as high as then I suppose. 26 might have been the VIX top here

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Yes, I agree, most investors should never have been 100% invested in the past two years, most should have sold everyting at the top in July 2021 nd gone all into cash. Life is never that simple tho. What looks like a normal retrace at the top of a say 6% fall turns to 10% and investors then feel that must be about it but it carries on and then they find themsewlves selling out September last year just before the FTSE250 unexpectedly rallied 25% in 4 months - those that benefitted the most were 100% invest before that bounce and they were swimming against the tide too, up to that point. So it is never easy making those calls without hindsight and I dare say those that are just getting or have just got fully into cash here will be wary of buying any rally we see at first and won't have the nerve to put everything in and potentially be buying in on a short term spike and pull back - and will eventually miss out on 'thee' next major market bottom.

Small caps are in a downtrend as you say, but what small caps are you talking about? Aim is off 20% since the start of the year, punishing - but then Aim contains a complete load of scammy dross for about 80% or more of the index that punters and rampers feed on, blag up, pump and dump and don't do any research whatsoever - little wonder the index has tumbled and weakened the valuations of the good companies that are on there. On the other hand the FTSE Small Cap Index has lost just 7% and it averages a near 4% divi yield - hardly a disastrous fall, in fact it has out-performed the FTSE250 which is off 10%. I've not looked, but I would bet that the performace of divi paying Aim stocks like SHOE are fairing way better than the average Aim stock. So my position is to stay well invested in fully listed small caps and Aim stocks which seem to be doing well and paying or will soon be paying a divi - but that requires doing a bit of research which most 'punters' can't be bothered to do imo.

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Maybe there won't be a capitulation phase and instead the long period of market decline is/ has been death by a thousand cuts?

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Oct 28, 2023·edited Oct 28, 2023

Unless your a hedgefund needing to be in the market, there is no techincal reason to be long more than 25% at most imo, wait for signs of green shoots. CARD SHOE are flat on the year for example so you go through all the back and forth for nothing but carry the risk of a warning.

UK/US broke support this week, SPY DJI IWM FTSE 250 etc could go a lot lower, so imo why be a hero with the market making new lows just be patient sit on hands and wait.

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