I'm cool with just being sat in good old cash and less on the table. Nice and easy to walk away, not worry about the macro and see how things play out.
Rather amatuerishly I spent a while last year looking at charting methods. One thing that came up for me was the 18000 upper limit for the NASDAQ being a warning point. This happened on 28 June, and we have slipped back a good ways since. I reduced then in a small way, but have been completely tempted back in since. I find your arguments for a shift to cash compelling. Having said that, there are some good and sustainable dividend payers still at reasonable valuations (such as AV. and LGEN). Do these tempt you at all?
It is never an easy call - and if you make a call like mine there's loads waiting to say you were wrong and rub your face in it. Most people know it takes a lot for me not to be bearish. There are some good divis out there but even then you have to be prepared to see your capital fall because when markets take a downturn, some of these yields can get very high.
There's a lot to be said for being able to ignore the market for a time, to see when directors feel the co is so cheap they will invest very meaningful amounts of their cash in the co.
The trend on the Nasdaq has got very steep - it has actually got to rise even more steeply or have a decent retrace I think. The current S&P500 10-year PE Ratio is 34.0. This is 67.5% above the modern-era market average of 20.3.
Thanks Rebel for the update.....albeit not what we are used to in terms of the sitting in cash sentiment, but nevertheless very valuable in terms of thought process behind the decision.
I must admit I was surprised at the speed of your change in strategy, from one of fully invested with FOMO setting into the market only recently - to that of 75%+ in cash. Maybe I hadn't fully digested where the market is now. But as you say, you call it as you see it and I do have a good % in cash now.
Finally, I am a bit shocked by some people's view that they feel a sense of entitlement on a weekly basis when your Substack (with in depth analysis) is completely free and obviously something you enjoy pulling together........ and something I'm sure the great majority of readers fully appreciate.
Thanks Cockney for a very honest and informative post. Much to ponder. Safe investing always climbs a wall of fear and doubt but currentky that wall seems just to high. Do you believe in investing in defensive stocks during a down period?
Yet another insightful weekly post. You tell it as you believe it is, which is rare these days. Your fears are all real, I just hope that it’s not as bad as you lay out for all our sakes.
How noble of you to want to protect others from making snap judgements by delaying when you announced your sells. I think if you were to interrogate yourself further, you may find that there was a less noble reason. I’d invite you to speculate on what other possible reason that may be. I’ll also have a go at speculating - perhaps you have seen yourself as getting things so right with stock picking, that you couldn’t bare the idea of looking like you may have got things wrong with your adulating audience. Or maybe that’s off the mark - either way, lacking the time / being busy is not the reason. You found more than enough time to tweet/repost countless messages that had a FR leaning/anti-immigrant undertones. What’s really confusing is your Substack persona and X persona - the former seems much more reasonable and levelled than the latter.
You are entitled to your opinion. I posted on Twitter on the Friday that I had sold. My apologies if I'm not in anyway allowed to have a private life at the weekend and I have to put together a long Substack for free, just because you demand, The actual problem for some people is they want confirmation bias all the time. While I am bigging up stocks and bullish then that's great. But see a point when I am really cautious and they don't want to hear it. I like to read concerns people have in the market and in stocks I might hold, it may Dave me from a big mistake.
My latter persona on Twitter isn't 'stocks exclusive'. I have an opinion (at the moment, this government seems hell bent on preventing that and free speech) and I'm not going to make up some second handle to post the stuff some might not like because it opposes their political views.
"perhaps you have seen yourself as getting things so right with stock picking, that you couldn’t bare the idea of looking like you may have got things wrong with your adulating audience"
Time will tell whether I have been right or wrong - I do have the balls to call it when I see it rather than your Harry Hindsights that will say 6 months after the event that they had seen things coming.
Perhaps me 'getting things so right with stock picking' is what bothers you, as you mention it, not me.
Nobody is forced to read my Substack, nobody pays for it - there are delete email or block buttons with all these things.
Hard to find defensive OBIAY stocks imo.
I'm cool with just being sat in good old cash and less on the table. Nice and easy to walk away, not worry about the macro and see how things play out.
Rather amatuerishly I spent a while last year looking at charting methods. One thing that came up for me was the 18000 upper limit for the NASDAQ being a warning point. This happened on 28 June, and we have slipped back a good ways since. I reduced then in a small way, but have been completely tempted back in since. I find your arguments for a shift to cash compelling. Having said that, there are some good and sustainable dividend payers still at reasonable valuations (such as AV. and LGEN). Do these tempt you at all?
Hi Bill
It is never an easy call - and if you make a call like mine there's loads waiting to say you were wrong and rub your face in it. Most people know it takes a lot for me not to be bearish. There are some good divis out there but even then you have to be prepared to see your capital fall because when markets take a downturn, some of these yields can get very high.
There's a lot to be said for being able to ignore the market for a time, to see when directors feel the co is so cheap they will invest very meaningful amounts of their cash in the co.
The trend on the Nasdaq has got very steep - it has actually got to rise even more steeply or have a decent retrace I think. The current S&P500 10-year PE Ratio is 34.0. This is 67.5% above the modern-era market average of 20.3.
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut imo.
Cheers
Thanks Rebel for the update.....albeit not what we are used to in terms of the sitting in cash sentiment, but nevertheless very valuable in terms of thought process behind the decision.
I must admit I was surprised at the speed of your change in strategy, from one of fully invested with FOMO setting into the market only recently - to that of 75%+ in cash. Maybe I hadn't fully digested where the market is now. But as you say, you call it as you see it and I do have a good % in cash now.
Finally, I am a bit shocked by some people's view that they feel a sense of entitlement on a weekly basis when your Substack (with in depth analysis) is completely free and obviously something you enjoy pulling together........ and something I'm sure the great majority of readers fully appreciate.
Thanks Stephen.
I a surprised too at my speed - too much to give back so perhaps I'm more jumpy
Thanks Kevin, I hope my fears are not played out, I make money in markets that go up. Sitting in cash isn't something I want to do.
Thanks Cockney for a very honest and informative post. Much to ponder. Safe investing always climbs a wall of fear and doubt but currentky that wall seems just to high. Do you believe in investing in defensive stocks during a down period?
Yet another insightful weekly post. You tell it as you believe it is, which is rare these days. Your fears are all real, I just hope that it’s not as bad as you lay out for all our sakes.
How noble of you to want to protect others from making snap judgements by delaying when you announced your sells. I think if you were to interrogate yourself further, you may find that there was a less noble reason. I’d invite you to speculate on what other possible reason that may be. I’ll also have a go at speculating - perhaps you have seen yourself as getting things so right with stock picking, that you couldn’t bare the idea of looking like you may have got things wrong with your adulating audience. Or maybe that’s off the mark - either way, lacking the time / being busy is not the reason. You found more than enough time to tweet/repost countless messages that had a FR leaning/anti-immigrant undertones. What’s really confusing is your Substack persona and X persona - the former seems much more reasonable and levelled than the latter.
You are entitled to your opinion. I posted on Twitter on the Friday that I had sold. My apologies if I'm not in anyway allowed to have a private life at the weekend and I have to put together a long Substack for free, just because you demand, The actual problem for some people is they want confirmation bias all the time. While I am bigging up stocks and bullish then that's great. But see a point when I am really cautious and they don't want to hear it. I like to read concerns people have in the market and in stocks I might hold, it may Dave me from a big mistake.
My latter persona on Twitter isn't 'stocks exclusive'. I have an opinion (at the moment, this government seems hell bent on preventing that and free speech) and I'm not going to make up some second handle to post the stuff some might not like because it opposes their political views.
"perhaps you have seen yourself as getting things so right with stock picking, that you couldn’t bare the idea of looking like you may have got things wrong with your adulating audience"
Time will tell whether I have been right or wrong - I do have the balls to call it when I see it rather than your Harry Hindsights that will say 6 months after the event that they had seen things coming.
Perhaps me 'getting things so right with stock picking' is what bothers you, as you mention it, not me.
Nobody is forced to read my Substack, nobody pays for it - there are delete email or block buttons with all these things.
Hear, hear!