Weekend Rebel Review 15th Feb 2025

FTC BOOM WJG BP. SMT GROW CAR

This is just some thoughts, it isn't investment advice or incitement to buy in any way, just my views - please do your own thorough research. I’m not an analyst, I’m just a private investor looking after my own money. Nothing I do or say is meant as advice or should be taken as such. Here I publish my ideas and research that I have done and discuss the way I invest. Anything written here needs to be verified for its accuracy. Assume any stock I write about I likely own, so my views are biased. Inevitably I will get things wrong, everyone is responsible for their own decision making and what they buy and sell. Subscribing and reading this article means you accept the above and you take full responsibility for your own actions and decisions. Small Cap stocks can be illiquid and very hard to sell at times when demand is weak so caution is required.

Expect some spelling mistakes – I’m dyslexic and in a rush to get this out on a Friday so a bit of a task at times.

It has been another quiet week as far as news goes but that tends to be the case in late February, lots of the results come out March to April. Hardly any real news from Tues to Thursday, when directors actually seem to work these days, but I’m sure that will perk up once March gets here if not before. Having said that, in a week when the FTSE250 has been flat at best, the FTSE Small Cap Index down and Aim was actually up a tad, there’s still reasons to be cheerful. I mentioned last week that the market feels like it is on a cusp and this week has enforced that.

Firstly, while indexes are not rising, they aren’t falling either, and the FTSE100 was up circa 1.5% in the first 4 days this week to a new all time high, over 8800.

Secondly, a number of investment co’s seem to be behaving positively in performance and share price. Among those looking interesting is the relentless curve up on the chart of SMT, dir buying at LIO and GROW quadrupling its buy backs – they had a good presentation for the City this week too. I hold all three currently as these look like the stand out plays in this sector to me, though it’s not a sector a do a lot of other than the recovery phase after big falls.

Ther FTSE250, FTSE Small Cap and Aim are all creeping through resistance too, Aim worth watching in particular:

FTSE Aim Index

FTSE 250

Good Aim stocks are now beginning to perform. My portfolio is up 6%+ this week thanks mainly in part to WJG, BOOM, FTC, MCB, MPAC and ANP which are nearly all the Am stocks I own. BP., OTB and those Investment trusts above played a part too. I can’t remember the last time I was up 6.4% in th first 4 days this week, I gave back 1.1% on Friday. While Aim isn’t actually motoring there are a lot of good stocks on Aim that have started too.

When markets bounce, volatility picks up. Punters that have been on the losing end or made no money for a time, suddenly get a few gains and can’t resist banking it. It is natural. If I was asked what one thing I did in my early investing years that cost me money, I would say over trading. Try to think of your investments more as numbers rather than money, percentages rather than pounds. That makes things far less emotional. When you get older and likely have the house, the pension and have had all the cars and chattels of life. You likely don’t need money as much so it becomes easier to ignore volatility and not keep scalping profits. If you are younger the money might mean more to you but if you can think of it as just numbers and de-emontionalise investing you may find you do better. Forget it might buy you a Rolex, stay cool and less emotional a bit more and it might be a Patek Philippe 😊.

On Thursday the GDP numbers came in a bit better than expected so Rachael from Accounts lives to breathe another political day. In the US the Nasdaq seems to be consolidating with a little bowl after the Deep Seek dip.

At the time of writing, late Friday, the S&P is testing the recent highs.

The VIX has stayed nice and steady down at 15 despite inflation numbers in the US coming in a tad stronger than expected:

On to stocks

Filtronic, FTC, the RF Technology company brightened a very wet grey Monday with a fab order announcement:

The order sizes are getting bigger and bigger. This £16.8m order over 2 years amounts to over one third of this years expected revenue. What’s more the order is £16.8m over two years but brokers have increased revenue expectations just £4m over two years. As I said last week, brokers here are guiding very cautiously and I expect further upgrades going through the year. Filtronic has just built a new state of the art factory which will double their capacity – as they say, go figure. They have also established a technology office at Cambridge Science Business Park. This has all been transformational since Nat Edington became CEO just 9 months ago. Of course at the moment, FTC are reliant very much on one major customer which isn’t ideal, but they have world leading tech and are the only company experienced enough in this field to deliver for Starlink. If you read between the lines in the CEO’s wording, they are going all out to win further customers in a range of RF products, hence their new offices at Cambridge, and they sound like they have been winning new business. There are also further satellite business start ups from Bezos and others that will likely need FTC products to reduce latency. FTC had a major win with SpaceX, at the last year end results they said “Given the customer's preference for vertical integration, this is a significant testament to our ability to design and deliver best in class technology.” These are products that it isn’t easy or perhaps even possible, to just start making yourself and at the end of the day, if SpaceX want to remain vertically integrated then FTC would likely be a bid target. Another interesting point is that additionally, at the last contract win announcement in August, FTC said. “The Company does not plan to announce further order intake for the E-band SSPA unless they fall outside the expected pattern or are material in the context of our anticipated financial performance.”. I think therefore this win is more financially significant than brokers are accounting for so far.

The shares soared to new recent highs this week and a great curve up on the chart..

If you are researching FTC, here’s a couple of interesting videos to look at:

This video podcast tells you a lot about the places and volumes RF is getting into in volume including lidar and radar in EV’s and satellite direct from satellite to cell-phone. A tad geeky but dumbed down enough for me to understand it so most readers should get it.

Forecasts for the coming year are lower than this year due to the cost of the new factory build in part but investors will adjust earnings accordingly to account for that and look through it to a fleet of new products likely coming down the line from SpaceX and other customers imo.

Audioboom, BOOM has now one bagged for me since Dec 2^nd for my first buys – a very good OBIAY come good in under 3 months and my first one-bagger this year. Circle marks the buy point on the chart. I cannot say I am really surprised to be honest.

Investing is about psychology, at £22, investors could see the value for the growth. At £2.20 investors hated it and couldn’t see the value. That’s the way most investors think, they want to travel with the crowd. Recovery plays are about sensing when sentiment changes then riding that change in sentiment. In recent weeks, any little intraday pull backs are getting bought by those trying to get in and build a stake. Investors have memories and many were buying up to that £20+ level, in fact the Chairman, Michael Tobin was buying right up to £18+ in 2022, so he like other investors then, could see the potential earnings growth as they started to make a profit.

BOOM have said these will be record results “The Company anticipates record revenue and record adjusted EBITDA profit in 2025”. Sales and adjusted EBIDA will be higher than where they were at the £22 high in 2022. There will likely be many investors that sold out way higher that will be more than pleased to be buying back a lot lower with the legacy contract issues sorted imo. Upgrades have been coming thick and fast from the company and brokers and no doubt investors are reliving mentally, this stock 10 bagging in 14 months in 2022.

I’ve no intention of selling for some time, results mid April last year and there is an absolutely stunning bowl on that longer term chart, while the Chairman, Michael Tobin, has been buying in the past fortnight. These are the recovery plays I search avidly for. I expect intraday volatility from stake-building - if you followed this one closely on it’s past rise you will know that’s what it did, all the way to the high – I will live with that.

Obviously I’m very much in profit and I would say that, I’m talking my own book in all likelihood and am biased. Being an adult, you make your own decisions about buying and selling and do your thorough research and don’t be swayed by me. All I am doing here is explaining what I invest in and why and what I look for and have found, just for amusement/interest.

Watkin Jones Group, WJG, has been another great performer, nearly halfway to one-bagging in a few weeks. Just a short note to say Fidelity nearly doubled their holding from 5% to 10% this week, which is nice to see. The company says the AGM will be on March 4^th.

Up 65% in a few weeks, but I’m focused on it still being 85% off of the high of 3 years ago, no dilution, and what it can do with net cash having gone from £43m to £83m over the past year – and a market cap of £87m.

A bit out of my usual sphere as I’m not into oilers normally. But BP, isn’t really any old oilers.

Several pointers stood out to me recently, starting with the bowl I highlighted in the New Year Bowl Calls at the start of the year:

https://cockneyrebel.substack.com/p/the-rebel-new-year-bowl-chart-calls?utm_source=publication-search

News this week in the press was that “Elliott Management, the aggressive New York activist investor, has amassed a stake that will fuel City speculation over a potential break-up or full sale.”

This week, BP. issued it’s Q3 trading update and while they were no way exciting, the shares stayed firm after the company said it planned a ‘New Direction’, describing 2024 as having been ‘laying the foundations for growth’. Directors have been buying recently and the co announced a $1.7bn buy back for the 4^th quarter. Already paying a 5.4% yield it is a nice income provider and the bowl and the ‘new direction’ story is tantalising, with Elliott in the back ground as a bonus.

The bowl has risen 20% since highlighted here at the start of the year. Intriguing, given the bowl – I added this week.

BP. Feels like one of those story changes like M&S and RR. that could add legs to the share price. I think I can likely find even better in the small cap arena so I doubt these will be a long term hold, but for now I’m riding the rally and the bowl.

Interesting bowls

Scottish Mortgage Trust, FTSE100, great curve up, high tech weighting:

Molten Ventures, GROW, quadrupling buy backs:

Carclo, CAR announced on Thursday that to replace Eric Huchins as CFO, they have appointed Ian Tichias as chief financial officer. He was CFO at Xaar and left a bit abruptly. Bearing in mind that and the poor performance of Xaar, I decided it was time to close the last small few CAR I had, which really was small. It has just become a distraction and been rather weaker than I expected it to perform.

So that is about it for this week, light on news but heavy on moves.

Remember these are not tips, I’m just posting what I have noticed and what I have been doing. Do your research, make your own decisions,

Have a good weekend

Rebel

Twitter: @rebelHQ