A very honest post Richard, and I really feel for you mate. I actually expected you to sell everything in the wake of Iran (as I know you have done before when macro looks high risk).
Some bargains at present imo (I know you’ve owned some of these previously): JD Sports (World Cup year), CARD, BRCK, Mobico (the debt is all bonds and they’re spread out - worth a deep dive for a potential 10-15x), WATR, ZIG (I don’t own), SFR (data centres etc), GAMA and OTB
I can’t share my top stock as I want to load up on it and the market cap is ridiculously low, as is volume… but I will do if I get a windfall anytime soon
Thanks Lorenzo, I very nearly did sell up when the FTSE All World Index was rolling over but last time it was a lot of work for nothing really. I should have done I guess and likely would have done buy the story re Duvelco looked so compelling enough to out run any market weakness. Today's update says it isn't.
Anyway, having given back all I have today, the portfolio is still up nearly 40% since April with all those one-baggers in the past year. Most fund managers would kill for that and 40% in a year would do me any year normally.
At the ends of the nay it's the niece and nephew's inheritance shrinking, they will just have to work a bit harder. It's also a chunk of money Rachael won't be stealing of of them too so net/net it isn't as painful in those terms.
Its humbling to hear you analyse it all when its still so raw and also admitting to being too confident. I couldnt sleep with such a big position personally. It took me 35 years to build my modest wealth but I wouldnt risk that much on one position no matter how confident. That said you have been tremendously skilled at trading over the years and I would expect you to continue with positive results and attitude. All the very best.
You’re a legend Rich. Very sorry to hear this news. As I tell my brother often, “that’s life at the top of the Christmas tree”. You are still one of the greatest investors/traders I know and you’ll be beating the market for many years to come.
I completely emphasise ... I also got caught albeit on a much smaller position. I have been also been hit hard on my gold miner holdings. It has been a rough few weeks for most of us, saved only by some fairly recent O&G buys. Are you going to hold or sell? I will continue holding my smallish position ... once again commiserations to all who had substantial positions.
Yeah ... I get it; once you lose confidence, that is it really. Sometimes it is psychologically easier to take the hit and move on rather than look at a line in your portfolio which reminds you of the mishap!!
What gets me is the poor communication ... not professional given their market cap.
I wonder if they might take themselves private now they are nearly half the price ?!
It’s easy to write when things are going well—much harder when they’re not. So thanks for the transparency. You’ll make it back and more, perfect timing too with everything on sale!
My sympathy - and empathy as well, as I had (in retrospect foolishly) made a substantial investment in Surface Transforms (SCE) having believed the story, only to lose it all a couple of weeks ago. But I have respect for anyone who is prepared to tell us when they've lost a packet - there are far too many who love crowing (no pun intended!) about the huge profits they've made, but suddenly disappear when things go wrong for them. And at least you've got the skill to make it back, unlike most of us.
Sorry to hear Cockney. There was a question mark over management here after their hugely dilutive LTIP in 2016 representing some 7% of shares in issue at the time, for very easy targets. I should have learnt my lesson then! The glib sign off about the statue and suspicious trade on Friday leave a very bad taste. I won't touch this company again.
There are going to be some great bowls forming soon, lots of potential bargains to be had, and I can't wait to read where your next investments are going. A very similar situation to Argentex last year, and Paul Hill was as honest about that as you have been with this.
I admire that you are one of the few pundits/commentators who makes his calls “before” the market moves and is then honest when things don’t go to plan. It’s a lesson to us all on what can happen and how to cope with the shit days so we can enjoy the good times even more.
It’s very good that you have been honest and sent this out. I held some and honestly it was from you mentioning them, but you always say do your own homework so I pass no blame on you. We get it back in the end 👍
Thanks for all the nice comments
I posted the poem 'If' at the weekend. The golf commentator Peter Aliss once said:
"If you can keep your head while all around are losing theirs........you probably haven't grasped the gravity of the situation :-)
A very honest post Richard, and I really feel for you mate. I actually expected you to sell everything in the wake of Iran (as I know you have done before when macro looks high risk).
Some bargains at present imo (I know you’ve owned some of these previously): JD Sports (World Cup year), CARD, BRCK, Mobico (the debt is all bonds and they’re spread out - worth a deep dive for a potential 10-15x), WATR, ZIG (I don’t own), SFR (data centres etc), GAMA and OTB
I can’t share my top stock as I want to load up on it and the market cap is ridiculously low, as is volume… but I will do if I get a windfall anytime soon
Thanks Lorenzo, I very nearly did sell up when the FTSE All World Index was rolling over but last time it was a lot of work for nothing really. I should have done I guess and likely would have done buy the story re Duvelco looked so compelling enough to out run any market weakness. Today's update says it isn't.
Anyway, having given back all I have today, the portfolio is still up nearly 40% since April with all those one-baggers in the past year. Most fund managers would kill for that and 40% in a year would do me any year normally.
At the ends of the nay it's the niece and nephew's inheritance shrinking, they will just have to work a bit harder. It's also a chunk of money Rachael won't be stealing of of them too so net/net it isn't as painful in those terms.
Its humbling to hear you analyse it all when its still so raw and also admitting to being too confident. I couldnt sleep with such a big position personally. It took me 35 years to build my modest wealth but I wouldnt risk that much on one position no matter how confident. That said you have been tremendously skilled at trading over the years and I would expect you to continue with positive results and attitude. All the very best.
Thank you Big_P
I have nothing but respect for you for writing this. Good luck with the next trade.
You’re a legend Rich. Very sorry to hear this news. As I tell my brother often, “that’s life at the top of the Christmas tree”. You are still one of the greatest investors/traders I know and you’ll be beating the market for many years to come.
Cheers
I completely emphasise ... I also got caught albeit on a much smaller position. I have been also been hit hard on my gold miner holdings. It has been a rough few weeks for most of us, saved only by some fairly recent O&G buys. Are you going to hold or sell? I will continue holding my smallish position ... once again commiserations to all who had substantial positions.
... and WTF was that crap about a statue?
Sold the lot Alastair
Yeah ... I get it; once you lose confidence, that is it really. Sometimes it is psychologically easier to take the hit and move on rather than look at a line in your portfolio which reminds you of the mishap!!
What gets me is the poor communication ... not professional given their market cap.
I wonder if they might take themselves private now they are nearly half the price ?!
Sorry to hear this Cockney. Hopefully it gets over this soon
It takes a business a long time to build confidence and credibility and something like today’s announcement to pretty much shatter it all immediately
Hubris? Is this the generation that gets too cocky is what I wonder. You start hearing everyone say you are invincible and you believe it.
Not a hint of this in the Dec results
I honestly cannot believe that the family running this business don’t realise the impact today’s announcement will have on their future credibility.
They have been very badly advised.
I wondered what the institutions are thinking? Those that bought shares from the family at around £190.
They probably sold out today.
yes, brutal is the word.
It’s easy to write when things are going well—much harder when they’re not. So thanks for the transparency. You’ll make it back and more, perfect timing too with everything on sale!
Cheers.
This big chunk of Stilton and a large glass of Sauvignon Blanc will lessen the blow :-)
My sympathy - and empathy as well, as I had (in retrospect foolishly) made a substantial investment in Surface Transforms (SCE) having believed the story, only to lose it all a couple of weeks ago. But I have respect for anyone who is prepared to tell us when they've lost a packet - there are far too many who love crowing (no pun intended!) about the huge profits they've made, but suddenly disappear when things go wrong for them. And at least you've got the skill to make it back, unlike most of us.
Thanks Michael - what doesn't kill you makes you stronger I am told - wish that was true!
Sorry to hear Cockney. There was a question mark over management here after their hugely dilutive LTIP in 2016 representing some 7% of shares in issue at the time, for very easy targets. I should have learnt my lesson then! The glib sign off about the statue and suspicious trade on Friday leave a very bad taste. I won't touch this company again.
Totally agree
Even with balls of steel, it’s a proper kick in the goolies this one. Your analysis and sang froid are most refreshing.
The blithe disregard for shareholders really shines through the trading update. Goodbye Goodwin.
There are going to be some great bowls forming soon, lots of potential bargains to be had, and I can't wait to read where your next investments are going. A very similar situation to Argentex last year, and Paul Hill was as honest about that as you have been with this.
I admire that you are one of the few pundits/commentators who makes his calls “before” the market moves and is then honest when things don’t go to plan. It’s a lesson to us all on what can happen and how to cope with the shit days so we can enjoy the good times even more.
It’s very good that you have been honest and sent this out. I held some and honestly it was from you mentioning them, but you always say do your own homework so I pass no blame on you. We get it back in the end 👍
True